According to a new report from Navigant Research, global stationary fuel cell revenue will grow from $1.4 billion in 2013 to $40.0 billion in 2022. Navigant Research forecasts that even under conservative growth estimates, the industry will be shipping 6.9 GW per annum of stationary fuel cells by 2022.
The stationary fuel cell sector represented more than 70% of global fuel cell revenue at the end of 2013. This figure does not include any research and development (R&D) money; it only represents revenue generated from the sales and shipments of stationary fuel cell systems.
Core application segments are prime power; large combined heat and power (CHP); residential CHP (resCHP); and uninterruptible power supply (UPS).
Navigant forecasts that the UPS application will experience the strongest growth rate and will see 2.7 GW annually by 2022. Navigant Research also forecasts that some 1.9 million homes will have resCHP fuel cell systems installed by 2022. Japan continues to lead the entire world in the resCHP market and had 42,700 residential fuel cell systems installed at the end of 2012.
The prime power market is led by three players: Bloom Energy, ClearEdge Power, and FuelCell Energy. These three companies are driving forward the deployment of large stationary fuel cells, with capacities in the tens of megawatts. At the end of 2013, 20 companies accounted for more than 95% of total revenue for the stationary fuel cell sector, according to the report.
The downside to this concentration is an innovation pipeline that may not be robust enough to drive the technological advances that this emerging sector will require over the next 5 to 10 years, the Navigant analysts observed.