China will dominate, but there is a considerable upside attached to the North American industry as it attracts foreign investment, and in the European industry as its domestic markets climb back. Japanese and South Korean production will decline as local OEMs focus their efforts overseas.

Declining vehicle demand in Russia and Turkey will limit European production growth to 1% this year, according to IHS Automotive. However, from 2015 to 2017 European output is expected to increase by four% per year, led by the recovery of domestic demand and sustainable increase in exports, primarily to the US and China.

While it currently consumes 70% of European production, Western European demand will contribute only 50% of production growth expected by 2021. Of this share, more than a half will come from Spain and Italy as they recover from enormous losses experienced during the years of recession.