If this forecast happens to be correct, many major city dwellers will have major health problems and many will suffocate from polluted air. Over 20% of Florida and other low lands may be underwater.

Cheer up. The chart is also telling you that the size of the "conventional" ICEV fleet will decline by over 200M. Since the higher incomes tend to be concentrated in urban areas (and thus more likely to be adopters of newer, perhaps more expensive technologies), the number of idling engines in urban traffic is going to plummet.

So, yay! Paris, Beijing, LA, Tokyo and others who will be the first beneficiaries.

This is, to put it mildly, hogwash. Many people make the mistake of believing the future will be very much like the past, and discount exponential technology growth.

Which will come just in time to help meet the inevitable carbon regulations that we will finally pass when people--at long last--stop denying the obvious. Such regulations will price out standard ICE vehicles in favor of renewably powered electric ones. The only reprieve would be if carbon neutral liquid fuel begins to see mass production. Even then, the BEVs of the late 2020s will likely sport 1,000 mile range and superior performance. Why would anyone want an ICE?

And with megawatt hour class batteries available, RVs, construction equipment and long haul trucks will see electrification, too.

Very un-optimistic, even cynical, forecast.
I see it like this: G7 countries currently make-up nearly 15% of world pop, by 2035 probably 10%. The US has more than 4 cars for every 5 people, the rest of the G7, a bit less. If we take the 2B cars on the road in 2035, it may be reasonable to say that 2 out of 3 people in G7 have cars, while 1 in 4 everywhere else at that future time.
I personally think that 1/2 cars in G7 will be PHEV/BEV/FCEV and say 1/8 everywhere else - that's my super-optimistic guess… that works out to be over 20% of all cars being in that category - a lot smaller than I thought. Even if we go nuts pessimistic and cling to the idea that ICE fuels will be only twice the price as now and tech will otherwise stall and so: say that only 1/5 G7 cars are PHEV/BEV/FCEV and 1/20 elsewhere, that is still over 8% of the total expected 2B cars on road. Not sure on the original assumptions, but the developing world can't possibly support that type of ICE infrastructure - how many barrels of oil per day is that? at that time? 25% more than now?

Number of electrified vehicles on the roads versus ICEVs is rather meaningless because ICEVs have as 120+ years head start.

Number of each type of new vehicles sold in post 2020 years is more relevant for the future, including 2035.

The ratio of ICEVs to electrified vehicles (HEVs-PHEVs-BEVs & FCEVs) sold has started to change with double digits in Norway, Japan, California, etc Changes will accelerate quickly in most countries after 2020. By 2035 and thereafter, the majority of private vehicles sold may not be ICEVs.

"Projections like this ignore the volunteer sales and PR force that plug-in vehicles have, of which Sean and I are both members."

And yet they do not ignore the FACT that even most Futurists and "PR force" do not drive EV's, as most of this fervently faithful forum do not. Even those who believe the world is on the very cusp of ending, with choking citizens keeling over in the streets and beachfront hotels toppling in rising seas, seem to hope everyone else will motor about on Lepton Power really soon whilst they themselves do not. And most people will continue to select ever-improving liquid-fueled conveyances, as most of you have done despite your superior intellect (or maybe because of it).

Now I know I'm a troglodyte, and I admit I had to drive the Pathfinder this past weekend to pack up a college grad, but I do manage to put in ALMOST all my miles on the output of the Byron Nuclear plant of late (I'm up to 4.6 mi/kWh). As a real live EV driver I can tell you sweet as they are BEVs will be a LONG time making it past 1% of the global fleet. I mean really: check the garages of people you know who are WAY more enlightened than I am.

There are 4 forces are work which drive non-ICE sales.

1. Electrified cars are fun to drive with really high torque at zero revs.

2. Costs of batteries are continuing to fall. I guess one could expect a 50% decrease by 2020 in-line with Tesla's "Gigafactory" which emphasizes economies of scale. One of the numerous "breakthroughs" reported on these web-pages may also come into play by 2020 to provide additional cost decreases.

3. Oil consumption continuously bumps up against production constraints requiring a higher fraction of higher-cost oil. ie Petrol prices stay high.

4. World governments will be faced with more pressure to combat climate change as its effects become increasingly evident. We're getting reports that 2014 will be an El-Nino year and hence is likely to break the all-time highest global temperature.

I have no idea how these effects are modelled by the consultants. A BEV is inherently less complex than even a conventional ICE let alone a stop-start ICE. If the battery cost decreases they have the potential to be cheaper in capital costs as well as far cheaper to run and more fun to drive.

By 2020 or so, the world will see a real commercial war between:

1. BEVs
2. BEVs with FC range extender
3. FCEVs
4. BEVs with dying ICEV range extender
5. Dying improved ICEVs.

By 2035 or so, 80+% of the commercial war will be between #1, #2 and #3 above.

@EP, now you are talking, can you morph an SSV into a HEV at lowest possible cost. If you could crawl through traffic (say up to 30mph) on electic, it would be very good - maybe even 20mph.

@harvey,
Indeed, but they are full HEVs, with the according costs.
My hope would be to add this functionality to an SSV (at a cost between a SSV and a HEV.

The trick is to get the greatest fuel economy for the lowest cost, by whatever means.

Yes RP, HEVs and PHEVs already make economic sense and even more so in our area with gas at $5.11 USD/US gallon.

We pay only about $0.065 CAN/kWh, (about half the rate you mentionned) for clean Hydro/Wind energy. I would buy a PHEV tomorrow, but our high rise condo internal garages are not yet equipped with charging facilities and public charging stations are still too rare.

It may take another 4 to 5 years before the majority will agree to have charging facilities installed. The majority may be driving ICEVs for another 15+ years.

Our main building high voltage transformer capacity is currently used at about 25% and it could take a large extra load. However, the power distribution panels would have to be re-organized and individual 200 Amps distribution breaker panels may have to be changed. The individual new electronic meters are OK. It may be easier to keep charging facilities independent with a separate power distribution + individual meters at each parking places.

An outside consultant may evaluate and propose solutions in 2018/2020 or so. In other words, no PHEVs in our building before 2020++.