Navigant forecasts 40% of new vehicles in 2030 will have some form of autonomous driving capability; 75% by 2035
In a new research report (“Autonomous Vehicles”), Navigant Research forecasts that by 2030, about 40% of new vehicles sold will have some form of autonomous driving capability installed. The company expects this to increase to 75% by 2035.
Although the first vehicles with some self-driving capability will come to market in 2020, Navigant said, it expects it will take another 5 years before volumes become significant. By 2030—if the recent proposed changes to the Vienna Convention (which would allow autonomous vehicles with a driver control override) are approved—Western Europe will be slightly ahead on first implementation, but the much larger automotive markets in Asia Pacific and North America will eventually lead, according to the research firm.
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Combinations of advanced driver assistance features that can enable semi-autonomous driving are now being brought to market. The increasing volumes and technology improvements behind those systems mean that it is feasible to install the multiple sensors necessary for such capability, Navigant noted.
Currently, simple automated driving functions such as keeping in lane while adjusting speed to the vehicle in front are currently being introduced. While the industry consensus is that the first more comprehensive self-driving features will be brought to market by 2020, significant hurdles remain, according to the research firm. Not all of these are technological.
The biggest practical hurdles before rollout to the public are those of liability, regulation, and legislation, according to the report.
Nevertheless, in the long term, the technology has the potential to institute major changes in personal mobility, particularly in large cities. Navigant Research forecasts that 94.7 million autonomous-capable vehicles will be sold annually around the world by 2035.