Perhaps this is something that Tesla should have a closer look at.
http://www.innovations-report.com/html/reports/energy-engineering/safe-lithium-batteries-with-a-long-service-life.html

I'm going to put it on record now that I think Tesla will come unstuck.

They got the drop on the other manufacturers by three methods:
1. Putting together 18650 cells to give better energy density which the other manufacturers did not fancy doing.
Incidentally this was not Musk's innovation, but the people he levered out from Tesla.
2. They run at a gross margin of 25%, which is trumpeted as being high compared to the likes of BMW.
Not at that price point it ain't, as margins there are more like 40%
3. They managed to raise huge amounts of capital although their real margins are low by endless hype, for instance the notion that they can build the model III at the same profit margins as the Model S, when typical margins for that class of car are maybe 11% or so, not at luxury car levels.

They continually talk about sales being supply, not demand limited.
In that case they would have been in real trouble had demand in Germany for instance reached the level they predicted, of 2-300 a week.
Actual sales in July were 26.

Demand in the US is flat:
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Demand in Europe ex Norway never took off, and even in Norway is now way down.

That leaves China as the only rabbit that can be pulled from the hat.

We will see if that exists with the September figures, although of course there will be much talk about their production pause.

My guess is that January will see that the sales have actually been around 30,000, not the 35,000 predicted, and that for all but those who are wilfully blind it will be clear that they are demand, not supply, limited.

This is however contingent on China, who of course if the legislature decides to could swallow any number of cars.

The Model X will in my view largely cannibalise Model S sales.

So it depends on how long the share price continues at its present stratospheric levels in the face of what in my view is likely to be extremely adverse data.

Of course in January poor figures will be brushed away by tales of how great they will be when the Model X is in full production.

Never underestimate the ability of a bubble to keep growing, but in my opinion it is unlikely to stay unpopped long enough for the Model III to hit production, or much of a hype-rfactory to be built.

I've been wrong before however, as although I did not say so I thought that the Model S was unlikely to see production, so we will see.

But there it is, I will nail my colours to the mast.

Model S can do 0 to 62 mph in 5.9 sec using a 60kWh pack so doing the same in a significantly less heavy car using a 55kWh pack is no problem. The performance edition Model III doing less than 4 sec will only be sold with a larger pack say 75 kWh and 300 miles range EPA rated. For Model III Tesla will use another battery cell than the 3.1Ah they currently use in the Model S. Model X and Model III will use either the Panasonic 3.4Ah cell or the 4Ah cell or a slightly modified version of these cells see

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/12/panasonic-20091225.html

You are also wrong about poor demand for Tesla. Tesla is so far only limited by their ability to ramp up production. For instance, order today and you need to wait 4 months for delivery in the US. Abroad the waiting list depend on when a shipload arrives. Tesla also needs to allocate more cars to countries where they just launched sales in order not to get too much bad press about long waiting lists. So right now China and Japan are the priority.

Tesla's production is continuous apart from factory shout downs needed for repairs or retooling. Delivery is largely a batch process in order to save costs. You can hire a car carrier for lees per car transported from the US to Europe or China than it cost to ship in containers. Problem is that a car carrier is typical 6000 cars for each load. Also ordering 500 containers for car shipping at a time cost less than ordering 20 containers at a time in a continuous flow. Transportation is a batch process when the volume is as low as it currently is for Tesla. That will not change until the Model III goes into production. This is also why Tesla does not report monthly sales as to many people without any understanding of how it works will come up with all kind of false interpretations for variations in monthly sales. When Tesla is above about 200,000 units per year the monthly sales will be more constant and then they will publish these statistics on a monthly basis.

It's a bit incongruous to cite soft demand in the face of months-long backlogs and 20,000 advance orders (with $5,000 deposit) for the upcoming model X, which customers will not see for 1-2 years depending on their position in the queue.

What other automaker enjoys that level of demand?

Tesla Model S-85 is number one in Norway (a rather cold country) and the fleet is growing fast.

China will certainly have the fast growing EV fleet before 2020. It may not reach the per capita growth found in Norway but it will bust total unit sales.

It would be wise for Tesla to build a large EV and co-located battery factory in China, where the world largest car market is.

A JV with local car + battery + Solar panels manufacturers could build a very large complex by end of 2017 or in time for 2018 models.

Dave so an order by one customer is canceled in the last minute meaning another customer with that specific choice of options gets lucky and obtain his/her order after one month instead of 6 months. Also Tesla may get a good price for 500 containers to Europe if they can fill it on a particular day which they just can by delaying US sales etc, etc. You see my point is that real life business is messy and complicated.

Variability in Model S deliveries are due to how they allocate. When I bought mine, I was quoted 1 month for P85, 2 months for 85, 3 months for 60.

I know people who were recently quoted 4 months, so clearly the queue shifts with the peaks and valleys of demand for any given month.

Unlike other manufacturers, Tesla builds to order, except for "inventory" cars they use to demo. There are no cars sitting on lots waiting for 90 day markdowns.

Smart.

For those confused by the distinctions being made here between batch and flow production, of course the line runs as continuously as possible.

However different batches of production can be allocated in different ways to ease both shipping and production issues.

So in the present case a batch may be allocated to China, Europe, the UK (rhd), or the USA.

If production is allocated on a per unit basis, then if your mate gets his car after two months, and you are told that you have to wait four, then it is reasonable to infer that demand has increased.

It is not so simple with allocated batches, as you may have simply missed the relevant batch.

So some customers having to wait a fairly long time does not necessarily indicate excess demand where there is batch production, or allocation if you prefer.

In fact if demand is low, then it may lead to longer wait times in some circumstances, for instance it may take longer to have enough orders to fill a container ship bound for Europe.

How long will it take Tesla to catch up with demands?

Dave you seem to have a short memory. Perhaps you should read your own post at 8:36 AM this thread. When you badmouth Tesla you better be prepared for some heat because Tesla of all companies does not deserved to be badmouthed.

Henrik:
In addition, this is a discussion forum, not a venue for you to impertinently offer instruction.

So get arrogant notions that: 'You have been told how it works'
right out of your head.

This is a discussion group of your peers, not your acolytes.

You give your opinion.
That is all.