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NADA forecasts light-duty vehicle sales of 16.94M in US in 2015; 56% trucks and SUVs

Low gasoline prices and pent-up consumer demand will combine to drive new car and light truck sales to an estimated 16.94 million in 2015, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association. NADA’s original sales forecast of 16.4 million new cars and light trucks for 2014 was on target. NADA represents more than 16,200 new-car dealerships both domestic and international franchises.

The split among the segments this year is expected to be 44% cars and 56% light trucks and SUVs because of lower gasoline prices, increased job growth and an improving housing market.

We expect to see significant growth in sales of light trucks, particularly in the large-size CUV and SUV segments. At the end of the day, consumers like the utility and comfort that larger vehicles provide. Lower gasoline prices accelerate that shift.

—NADA Chief Economist Steven Szakaly

The pickup truck segment, in particular, is expected to benefit from an improving housing market, climbing to 15.2% this year from 13.7% in 2014.

On the downside, small and mid-sized cars are likely to face a tougher market in 2015. Szakaly expects incentives to rise on small and midsize vehicles. In addition, hybrid sales are expected to be slower as long as oil remains cheap.

Midsize cars are expected to decline in share of total light vehicle sales from 18.6% to 17%, while small cars are expected to lose 1% of share.

The one area where prices and segment share are likely to remain stable is in the luxury segment.

—Steven Szakaly

NADA’s economic outlook calls for gross domestic product to be up 3.1% in 2015, with the potential for growth to exceed that level.



The vehicle size seems to vary with the pocket book in USA and western Canada?

Considering the above, heavy AWD PHEV-SUVs similar to the new 117 empg unit from BYD China could be ideal to reduce fuel consumption instead of increasing it below 20 mpg.


I see more accidents with suvs than cars because suvs have worst roadholding and the safety feeling is an illusion.


gor, SUV drivers know intuitively that they are too unaware to drive safely and thus they seek the so called big vehicle safety. I think it's a hoax, since while in a head on collision with a smaller vehicle they are safer, they have other issues such as they are easier to roll over. Those of us who drive small cars are not fearful of accidents because we are aware when we drive.

I believe the predictions of the NADA are their hopes and it more or less tells us what they intend to push through their manipulative sales forces who are in fact professional manipulators.

The only people who say that car salesmen are not dishonest are car salesmen and the very brainwashed.

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