A lot of progress is independent on whether the vehicle is FCEV, PHEV or a BEV.

They use a lot of the same equipment regardless of where the electrons come from.

Recently discussion elsewhere regarding the projected higher range Renault and Zoe cars assumed that to get double the range, double the energy from the battery was needed, so folk were guessing at 48kwh for the pack for the new Leaf in 2016-7.

For instance a large part of VW's plan to increase range for the E-Golf comes from other improvements as well as battery specific energy gains, see page 17 here:
http://www.volkswagenag.com/content/vwcorp/info_center/en/talks_and_presentations/2014/07/FM_04_07_14.bin.html/binarystorageitem/file/06_2014-07-04+Presentation+Barclays+London+Steiger+TOP+COPY.pdf

So drive train improvements, aerodynamics and weight are also important.

LG have said that they can make a battery good enough to enable a 200 mile range BEV by 2016 for $35k.

On a trend where batteries are decreasing from perhaps $400kwh in 2014 to $180kwh in 2025, which are the sort of figures often quoted aside from whatever Tesla is up to, then by 2017 we might be on $300 kwh.

For a 48kwh pack that comes to nearly $15k, which is pushing it.

My guess would be that the new Leaf and Zoe will have packs in the area of 40kwh, and the rest of the range aside from the perpetual optimism in such things is from other improvements.

Silicon carbide power components are a part of this sort of improvement.

Incidentally since a 40kwh pack would still cost $12k, that explains Toyota's reluctance to press on with BEVs with present technology.

They see them as most suitable for city cars, and since those start well under $20k then a £12k battery pack does not make them truly economic.

Nissan are hoping that people will be prepared to compromise cross country ability to a degree, and so they can sell cars which are a bit more upmarket and pricier than pure city cars.

@Cheeseater:

Fair enough, but perhaps it should be noted that PHEV batteries are high power, and the costings are different to those in BEVs.

So $300kwh for BEV batteries does not mean that those in a PHEV will only cost that.

LG Chem have designed a pretty good pack for the next generation Volt though, so we are getting there, and progress is being made on PHEV batteries as well as BEV ones.

BTW, the specific energy increase for both PHEV and BEV batteries seems to be of the order of 80%, taking them up to the same kind of figure as that already employed in the Tesla.

Raising that much is tough indeed, as Musk has noted.

I will say, as soon as payback comes in around 75K miles or less, that is the point of mass adoption of that technology. Most owners want to see the benefit during the time they own their vehicle. (5 years from new is a common occurrence)

So here is hoping!

RE: Optimum electric range for PHEVs: With so many tradeoffs to consider, it becomes a complex formula to determine what the optimum battery size for a PHEV is. If reduction in fleet GHG emissions is the goal, smaller packs with lower cost leading to larger market share might justify a shorter all-electric range. By the same token, lowering fuel usage/emissions of popular, higher-consumption vehicles (SUVs, CUVs) would have a greater impact than replacing an already-efficient compact car with a Chevy Volt (where is my CrossVolt??)

For myself and other holdouts 40miles EV is a wonderful number, if I could get an SUV with 40miles EV range and a small efficient(~30mpg highway) gas generator for a $5,000-$8,000 premium over a comparable vehicle. Icing on the cake would be the same $5000-$8,000 premium with a 25kwh battery and ~70+EV miles.(probably will never happen)

As the premium gets lower over time, we'll see more and more manufactures jump on board.

One problem with long range EVs with ICE generators would be if they have too long of range the generator is just lugged around for almost no reason most of the time. The ICE generators do need to run and be maintained every so often, if you can get a good balance between EV range >40 and less than 100 I think there could be massive amounts of EV miles without much compromise or overhead. I think 60miles EV under most conditions would be low enough to have the generator run often enough to heat up completely, and run a full closed loop cycle run its emission monitors, and then shut down. It probably has to clear the gas out once a year or two... So maybe $50 a year in gas for most users, the rest would be electric (around $561)... saving around $700-$800 a year if you look at maintenance, fuel, and other factors. (more as the price of gas goes up, I used $2.50/gal, if it hits over 3.50/gal you could save over $1,250 a year)

So really, if you could get the EV with a range extender for a $5000 premium with 40 mile range it would pay off for most owners quickly, until then, EVs are going to have a slow go in America.

VW's idea of a PHEV FCEV means that you would not have the same problems of souring, and the leakage rate from a hydrogen tank is miniscule.

Of course there is not a hydrogen station on every corner, but their design with large batteries topped off with a FCEV for long range would not need many to provide cross country capability.

Another option is a fuel cell RE, which would solve cold weather range reduction problems by both providing cabin heating and keeping the batteries at optimum temperature.

PowerCell is in the late stage of design for a diesel fuel truck fuel cell, for ancillary power, but it would seem that they may be capable of development into a car RE.

There are so many options that 'picking winners' simply is not possible at this stage.

Of course lithium air batteries would provide completely new capabilities, but so would on board reformation, or methanol etc fuel cells, as they avoid the need for expensive high pressure storage and provide much greater density energy storage.

My own preference is always to take weight out where possible, as transport is basically about moving mass over distance, so the less mass the better.

So I would love to see through the road, on the move, inductive or magnetic resonant charging, which would avoid the need for either massive battery packs or fuel cells and hydrogen storage.

All the technologies we are developing will have a part to play though, and they are all as big an advance on combustion engines as they were over having the streets buried deep in horse dung.

Davemart,
Where did you get the $400/kWh battery price in 2014? Last year, Nissan was offering replacement batteries for $230/kWh and Elon has repeatedly said that prices would be below $200/kWh when the Gigafactory starts up.

I forgot to mention, I think Davemart was initially thinking smaller capacity PHEVs like those in Fords and Toyota's hybrids... the chemistries are very expensive for the KwHs compared to a Leaf, a Model S, or a Bolt.

Nissan made many changes to the Leaf in the 2013 MY, including replacing the aluminum doors and hood with steel; moving the charger to become a part of the front wheel drive module; replacing the electric emergency brake with a floor type pedal e brake; etc., all in all reducing the weight by 170 lbs. Drivers are experiencing about a 5-8% increase in range.that reduces the car to about (3300 - 170) 3,130 lbs...a decided step in the right direction. Further improvements are expected as Nissan vapor so far has spec'd 200 miles of range as a target; perhaps more efficient electronics will be included in the new models.

While engaging in battery price speculations you might want to remember that Navigant Research reported a few months ago that Tesla was paying Panasonic $180/kWh. Now.

http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/battery-storage-costs-plunge-below100kwh-19365

BTW, that is not a misquote in the linked article. I've read the original research paper.

Furthermore it is expected that battery prices will fall another 30% once the Tesla/Panasonic gigafactory opens. That takes price to below $130/kWh by 2017.

There's no magic sauce that gets the Panasonic prices so low, it's volume manufacturing. Economy of scale. Other companies (L G Chem, BYD, for example) are also going bit with major increases in manufacturing capacity. Tesla won't be the only company with access to very affordable batteries.

A 200 mile range EV could likely be built with a 50 kWh battery pack. That's $6,500 at $130/kWh.

What would a best guess be for a Camry engine, transmission along with cooling, fuel and exhaust systems?

Davemart,
Yes, but he's also talking about prices that Panasonic is providing today. If we're going to speculate on battery costs, why assume worst case rather than look at the best case situations that are already occurring?

GM didn't announce the Bolt without some type of hope that by 2017 these numbers were attainable and Nissan is letting it leak that they'll have 200+ mile range on the Leaf in that time frame as well.

These things are not happening if they think they'll be paying $400/kWh in the next two years. To assume those prices seems pretty negative based on directions we're seeing from the people in a position to know.

@DaveD,
If indeed, Tesla is paying $180 per kWh for battery right now, then why did other car mfg's not lineup at Panasonic's door to buy the same battery? Hobby-grade Lithium polymer batteries are costing $800-900 per kWh now, all made in China.

But, a 60-EPA-MPG Prius is significant in another way:
Hydrogen engine. Indeed, with direct injection running at ultra-lean mode, a hydrogen engine can be 20% more efficient than current gasoline engine. A 60-mpg Prius can attain 72 mpg using hydrogen.
Thus, the FCEV Mirai can be equipped with Prius' engine and hybrid power train, with 4-kg of H2 in 2 tanks smaller than the 5-kg capacity of the Mirai right now. At 72 mpg, the range would be 288 miles using 4kg of H2. 4kg of H2 can be stored in tanks costing $1,600 instead of in $16,000 of batteries, 80 kWh batteries at $200 per kWh.