Ford enters 2 new European research collaborations for innovation in mobility and autonomous vehicles
04 February 2015
Ford Motor Company has entered into two new research collaborations driving innovation in mobility and autonomous vehicles.
This month, the Ford European Research & Innovation Center in Aachen, Germany, and the Technology and Innovation Management Institute of RWTH Aachen University will launch the Personal Mobility Experience Innovation project. Ford also this year is contributing to the UK Autodrive initiative that is researching how driverless and connected cars can be integrated into everyday life.
Personal Mobility Experience Innovation. This project aims to identify the features, technologies, services and solutions that could enable Ford to meet customers’ changing preferences and expectations for personal mobility and help address societal challenges such as traffic congestion and environmental issues.
Without question, we are embarking on one of the most transformative eras in the history of the auto industry—and in the history of Ford. This can be a threat or an opportunity. We see it as an opportunity to provide real solutions and exciting new products for millions, and ultimately help change the way the world moves.
—Mark Fields, Ford president and CEO
Both of the projects are elements of Ford Smart Mobility announced earlier this year (earlier post) to foster innovation in the areas of connectivity, mobility, autonomous vehicles, the customer experience and big data.
The Personal Mobility Experience Innovation project brings experts from Ford and the university together to study business models from a range of industries and the transformations made by other innovators, to learn how they could be applied to the automotive industry and help deliver mobility solutions.
Ford will look at examples such as Apple and Amazon, which have expanded from being single product and service providers to delivering a full ecosystem of hardware and software platforms and services. The project will identify how such approaches could deliver enhanced car-ownership experiences; new approaches to car-sharing and personalization of mobility solutions; and create innovative features and new business opportunities.
This is an exciting time because while we are confronting real challenges to mobility as the world becomes more crowded and urbanized, we are also in the midst of a technological sea change that will help us find solutions. This project is about tapping into the best thinking from other industries and sectors to deliver new mobility solutions.
—Pim van der Jagt, executive technical leader, Ford Research & Advanced Engineering
UK Autodrive. During 2015, Ford will contribute to the UK government-sponsored UK Autodrive initiative. The aim of Autodrive, a three-year project design and engineering consultancy Arup, is to establish the UK as a global hub for the development of autonomous vehicle technologies and to integrate driverless vehicles into existing urban environments by trialing them in two major UK cities.
Ford will work alongside other manufacturers to study how driverless and connected cars can be integrated into everyday life, and will provide two prototype cars with vehicle-to-vehicle communication capability to help test an innovative public transport system.
Vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure connectivity technologies such as those tested in real-world urban environments during the US Autodrive initiative, also will contribute to the development of fully autonomous vehicles.
Ford’s semi-autonomous vehicle features available today include Lane Keeping Aid, Adaptive Cruise Control, Pre-Collision Assist with Pedestrian Detection and Active Park Assist – with Traffic Jam Assist coming.
A fleet of fully autonomous Ford Fusion Hybrid research vehicles is undergoing further development and ongoing road testing as Ford shifts its autonomous vehicle efforts from a research program into a vehicle development program. The vehicles use the same semi-autonomous technology in Ford vehicles today, while adding four LiDAR sensors to generate a real-time 3D map of the surrounding environment.
The vehicle can sense objects around it using the LiDAR sensors, and uses advanced algorithms in concert with high fidelity maps to help it determine where vehicles and pedestrians are located and to predict where they might move.
Glad to see that Ford is full steam at autonomous driving tech. It is going to be the biggest business opportunity in the next 2 two decades where it will be implemented in full. It is not difficult to make a business case of why. For instance, in the USA there are 300 million vehicles that probably on average is driven 30 minutes per day by a driver that on average is paid 25 USD per hour. With autonomous driving the driver can do something productive like work or entertainment. Therefore the opportunity savings from autonomous driving in the USA alone is 1370 billion USD (=300*.5*25*365) per year. That is about 7% of US GDP saved every year!
Moreover there are additional dozens of billions in annual USD savings from being able to carry out the same volume of transport by using fewer vehicles that are operated much more than the average 30 minutes per day and by nearly always only using a vehicle that is just big enough to get the job done instead of having one person driving a seven seat vehicle alone most of the time. Additional billion of USD can be saved by using BEVs with record low maintenance and fuel cost and that can overcome range anciety simply by swapping vehicles several times during very long rides.
Autonomous driving will be the catalyst that can make the BEV mass market happen more than anything else including truly low cost batteries that are still several decades away. Autonomous driving is coming much faster than those low cost batteries.
Posted by: Account Deleted | 04 February 2015 at 09:56 AM
Autonomous driving, esp. in urban conditions, is going to be legally insured by who and for how much?
Concerning another research collaboration - has the Power Japan Plus and Team TAISAN go-kart/Ryan battery failed?
http://powerjapanplus.com/news/team-taisan-and-power-japan-plus-form-partnership-to-develop-worlds-first-electric-vehicle-powered-by-the-ryden-dual-carbon-batte/
Posted by: kelly | 04 February 2015 at 02:05 PM
The car owner will pay for insurance as before. The insurance premium will be less as there are less accidents with autonomous vehicles.
Posted by: Account Deleted | 05 February 2015 at 05:31 AM
Moreover, since autonomous vehicles store a throve of high definition video, radar and other sensor info it will be much easier to document liability issues and establish guilt.
Posted by: Account Deleted | 05 February 2015 at 05:36 AM
Anyone who has ever had Windows crash will gladly hand over his safety and the massive liability premiums required to cover:
a potentially hacked/deficient/bad sensor/software glitch/weather change/detour/new construction/bad connection/hung 'wide-open' throttle/
.. in one to a half dozen lanes of high speed traffic/ice/snow/rain/potholes/.. combinations - all on autonomous HD video.
Posted by: kelly | 05 February 2015 at 08:19 AM
Kelly that is a really good point. This is why all mission critical systems, like an auto pilot is build with redundancy. There will be at least two set of computers and sensors and servo steering and electric brakes in a fully autonomous vehicle. The decommissioned space shuttle has three of each important critical system. Sure there will be blue screen but another takes over instantly. If the first system can't be fixed by a reboot you will be required to park at the nearest possible auto repair service so that you do not drive around with a vehicle that does not have redundancy for its critical systems.
Posted by: Account Deleted | 05 February 2015 at 09:10 AM
I could see self driving for car rentals, you get to your hotel and release the car to go back to the center for charging. If you need it again a car comes out to pick you up.
Posted by: SJC | 05 February 2015 at 10:09 AM
There won't be a need for 2 sets of everything, most Data high speed data systems have enough inputs and enough information from similar sensors to make good judgment with bad sensor/interrupted inputs, more over cars will default to the safest mode possible... if Autonomy cannot be sustained (for any reason) the car will likely stop/pull over, and return control to the driver.
Most Bus systems are two wire and have failure modes, or if they are single wire they still have failure modes through alternate paths and through lower speed BUSes, its unlikely just as it is unlikely today with cars to have massive data failures. There are often a LIN bus, hi and low speed CAN systems, and the car can often talk across several of these incase of a major failure...
They are going to wifi / power line communication modules too making the issue of shorted/opened communication wires almost a non issue.
There wouldn't be need for secondary actuators, 2 times the parts on safety systems can lead to 2 times the failures. If a major actuator did fail or wasn't acting within its parameters the car would/should likely be serviced before operating, thus redundancy on this side is a non issue. Why would a OEM allow for a car to run down the road under Autonomy with a failed system? That would lead to lawsuits.
Think of it when any manufacturer even Tesla makes their car be inoperable/towed away because of a certain kind of malfunction.
Sensors will have redundancy. Especially visual sensors/positioning/navigation sensors (like GPS. since they are inputs that need very high precision). The vehicle has redundancy and check features in airbag circuits. It has 4 vehicle speed sensors, 4 channel ABS, 2 O2 sensors(or more) etcetera, DBW brake pedals often have 3 sensors, again actuators won't probably see redundancy, neither will computers(many have a bit of redundancy, but its not like how you'd think, its not two identical systems), sensors will be everywhere though.
Posted by: CheeseEater88 | 05 February 2015 at 10:38 AM
One can have lots of redundant autonomy, at least until it snows and all processing driving systems agree it's wide open clear sailing..
http://fortune.com/2015/02/02/autonomous-driving-bad-weather/
Posted by: kelly | 05 February 2015 at 11:21 AM
Kelly, that's a bit misleading... The Kia's system is very basic, its simply a lane keeping, adaptive cruise control, and collision warning system, and most of the sensors did work in the snow, especially the cruise and collision.
Mass data embedded in infrastructure and vehicles are the next step for autonomous cars.
Hacking is a concern, but usually people who hack cars do through the DL2 connector with a device with a powerful wifi signal to give them the range they need.
I don't know if there is anyone that can hack someone running down the road in time before they are out of range. Older cars have some encryption, though its 48bit iirc, newer ones are more heavily encrypted because of the system being proprietary and the technology advancing.
Again, if the car is looking at 1000s of inputs, infrastructure and other vehicles... It would take a lot of clever tricks to fool it.
The car knows what is normal, extreme and expected... it can also account for huge variances in sensor inputs and can know when a sensor is not behaving properly and go on down the road ignoring it. To trick a sensor you basically have to insert a resistance/voltage small enough like in the few ohms/volt range to really manipulate the circuit, but again if you manipulate irrationally it will ignore the input.
On more advanced/modern sensors they actually have a processor which sends a data signal back to the PCM or ECU, there is often a test during startup to verify critical components and their circuit.
Airbags have set resistances built into the circuit, it knows if there is corrosion, opens or shorts to grounds, it also knows if the accelerometers are working(by communicating with them) all within seconds(the system activates in microseconds though during a collision event), there is also lots of redundancy. It also knows when to flag a bad sensor or bag or put the system into a limp mode. Obviously there are millions of people rolling down the road with damaged circuits and other things amiss but the car is engineered well enough that in worse case scenarios it will do its best to protect the occupants.
Posted by: CheeseEater88 | 05 February 2015 at 07:19 PM
Hacking is my biggest concern. Someone with intent could harm you that way taking over the car and drive it into something at full speed. I would personally only want an autonomous car if it can operate offline which should not be a problem. It only goes online to update programs and data banks when it is parked or when you choose to in order to get real time traffic info on a unusual day with harsh weather for instance.
However, I am convinced most fully autonomous cars will be fleet operated taxis (by Uber, Lyft etc) that will transport people at lower cost than driving in your own car. There will probably not be an offline mode for those fleet operated cars.
Posted by: Account Deleted | 05 February 2015 at 11:31 PM
Again, it will take a lot of brute force to wirelessly hack someone's vehicle to control it. More than likely a person would have to control signatures from infrastructure and hundreds of vehicles to trick a future autonomous vehicle. Again most likely outcome if the vehicle is confused by its inputs will be that it derate and pull over if in autonomous without a driver, or simply switch to manual control.
Also, it would take a lot of high dollar equipment, lots of dedication to hack someone else's car while the roll down the road, usually sensors are two way, they talk to the ecm, if someone wanted to commandeer a car they would have to stay in range of the vehicles wireless
Posted by: CheeseEater88 | 06 February 2015 at 10:28 AM
I have made a "Cost to drive one mile" formula in order to compare gassers with BEVs and the potential costs of using an autonomous drive taxi. Using these formula I compare the Leaf with the Prius and Tesla's Model S 85D with Audi's RS7. The conclusion is that the Leaf is not cost competitive currently nor is its short range and long charging times competitive with a Prius. Tesla on the other hand is cost competitive currently and its usefulness is similar to Audis because of its long range apart from the long time to charge Tesla's battery. Most importantly a future autonomous taxi "Leaf" with a long-life lithium titanate battery can beat any gasser on cost to drive one mile by a very large margin even when the assumed cost per kwh is kept at a very high 500 USD per kwh. Autonomous technology is therefore in my opinion more critical and effective than lower battery costs to end the use of liquid fuels in autos.
Leaf cost: 0.122 USD per mile = 0.3*$0.10 + $500/1500*0.3 - ($1000/(1500*85)). *
Prius cost: 0.079 USD per mile = $3/50miles + ($1500+$1500)/160000. **
Now compare Tesla and Audi
Tesla 85D cost: 0.118 USD per mile = 0.33*$0.10 + $250/800*0.33 - ($4000/(800*270)). ***
Audi RS7 cost: 0.177 USD per mile = $3/19miles + ($3000)/160000. ****
Now consider a hypothetical future taxi Leaf with autonomous driving and a long life 24kwh lithium titanate battery. With autonomous driving the range issue and charging time issue no longer exist as you can change car to go further than 85 miles. This is the BEV conception that can wipe out any gasser on the market.
Autopilot Leaf: 0.044 USD per mile = 0.3*$0.10 + $500/10000*0.3 - ($1000/(10000*85)). *****
----------
* Assuming: 1) 0.3kwh used per mile driven, 2) 10 cents per kwh, 3) battery costs (plus gross margin) of 500 USD per kwh, 4) cycle life of 1500 cycles, 5) electric range of 85 miles, 6) scrap value of battery is 1000 USD. Implied serve life is 127,500 miles corresponds to warranty.
** Assuming: 1) long-term price of gasoline is 3 USD, 2) Prius can do 50mpg, 3) it cost 1500 USD to change oil throughout the service life of a Prius, 4) Toyota can attribute 1500 USD of the selling price of a prius to its battery pack (cost plus gross margin). 5) The service life of the Prius is 160000 miles.
*** Assuming: 1) 0.33kwh used per mile driven, 2) 10 cents per kwh, 3) battery costs (plus gross margin) of 250 USD per kwh, 4) cycle life of 800 cycles, 5) electric range of 270 miles, 6) scrap value of battery is 4000 USD. Implied serve life is 216,000 miles corresponds to warranty.
**** Assuming: 1) long-term price of gasoline is 3 USD, 2) The Audi RS7 can do 19mpg, 3) it cost 3000 USD to change oil throughout the service life of a Prius, 4) The service life of the Audi is 160000 miles.
***** Assuming: 1) 0.3kwh used per mile driven, 2) 10 cents per kwh, 3) battery costs (plus gross margin) of 500 USD per kwh, 4) cycle life of 10000 cycles, 5) electric range of 85 miles, 6) scrap value of battery is 1000 USD. Implied serve life is 850,000 miles corresponds to warranty of auto grade lithium titanate battery see for instanse Altairnano's battery http://www.altairnano.com/products/performance/.
Posted by: Account Deleted | 07 February 2015 at 04:13 AM
Alternano is bankrupt (or about to) so a better link to a supplier of lithium titanate batteries would be Toshiba see http://www.scib.jp/en/product/detail.htm
Posted by: Account Deleted | 07 February 2015 at 06:57 AM
I would wager both electric and gas cars should see 300k+ miles (more if autonomous) if used in a taxi service...
Most of the laws that limit cab services have to do with the age of the vehicle (or emissions) not the mileage, and large cab companies usually have the wherewithal to keep vehicles on the road for a long time.
They try and use one platform, or a lot of each platform they do run. Parts for repair get fairly easy to come by if you have 1000 vehicles and you can cannibalize 10 wrecks and vehicles that died because of mechanics failures each year(hypothetically). And most use popular platforms.
Okay, so biggest thing with autonomy:uptime vs down time. If an autonomous vehicle can run operate 20hours a day, and be serviced refueled in the other 4, that creates massive advantages compared to more of a vehicle with a single driver scenario. Ride sharing to cut fares down would be great. They could even give incentives like 10% off total fair when sharing with strangers to encourage the behavior.Again I image a very good dispatching software to maximize uptime and carpooling.
If we can get to 600-800miles range with ~4hours of charging BEVs would rule autonomy hands down. (lots of range due to unforeseen factors like weather, traffic) I estimate a average speed of around 30mph, less in a strictly urban environment.
But if we can get 500miles a day out of a car, or more that would just speak to efficiencies. Cars can last a very long time as long as you have parts to repair it. If well maintained basically you can drive it till the body rusts apart. ICEs and electric drive trains can be serviced, and so can batteries, for much less than buying a new vehicle. I have no doubt in my mind that a useful PHEV like a Prius or a Volt could vehicles could see 1million miles in this type of arrangement.
Where this all gets tricky is BEVs do have a pretty set life, I'd wager large ones like Tesla Model S could see 800k miles before having the battery be replaced. Again, the capacity diminishes, but likely it is possible to utilize it most of the time unless there are very high resistances when charging the cells. So while the battery does hold less, you could simply charge it more often to make up for it. Maybe for small 24kwh ones like a leaf, 200k miles or less (its a matter of usefulness). If the car only has 30miles range, it doesn't make much more than a short distance shuttle. Where as a car with a Tesla sized pack could get to 30% of its original capacity and still work pretty long routes.
Cars do last, even in heavy service.
Posted by: CheeseEater88 | 07 February 2015 at 07:11 PM
I remade all of the calculations to make them more inclusive. Sorry for the length of this post.
I have made a simple "Total cost of ownership" and "Total cost to drive one mile" formula in order to compare gassers with BEVs and also the costs of using a fully autonomous taxi. Using these formula I compare the Leaf with the Prius and Tesla's Model S P85D with Audi's RS7. The conclusion is that the Leaf is not quite cost competitive currently nor is its short range and long charging times competitive with a Prius. Tesla on the other hand is very cost competitive currently and its usefulness is similar to the Audi because of its long range apart from the long time to charge Tesla's battery. Most importantly a fully autonomous taxi with a small 24kwh long-life lithium titanate battery can beat any gasser on cost to drive one mile by an extremely large margin! This is so even when the assumed battery cost for the necessary battery chemistry is kept at a high 500 USD per kwh. Autonomous technology is therefore IMO much more critical and effective than lower battery costs to end the use of liquid fuels for land based vehicles.
Now compare Leaf and Prius
Nissan Leaf life cost: 34,870 USD = (29,000 USD for Leaf + 4,320 USD for life electricity + 2,550 USD for life maintenance - 1000 USD scrap value of battery)*
Life cost per mile: 0.27 USD = $34,870/127,500 miles service life*
Toyota Prius life cost: 37,600 USD = (24,000 USD for Prius + 9,600 USD for life gasoline + 4,000 USD for life maintenance)**
Life cost per mile: 0.24 USD = $37,600/160,000 miles service life**
Now compare Tesla and Audi
Tesla S P85D life cost: 118,256 USD = (106,000 USD for P85D + 8,160 USD for life electricity + 8,096 USD for life maintenance - 4000 USD scrap value of battery)***
Life cost per mile: 0.58 USD = $118,256 /202,400 miles service life***
Audi RS7 life cost: 140,263 USD = (107,000 USD for RS7 + 25,263 USD for life gasoline + 8,000 USD for life maintenance)****
Life cost per mile: 0.88 USD = $140,263/160,000 miles service life****
Now consider a fully autonomous taxi with an ultra durable 24kwh lithium titanate battery (10000 cycles) giving it about 85 miles of range and a service life of 850,000 miles. With autonomous driving the range issue and charging time issue no longer exists as you can change the vehicle in seconds to go an additional 85 miles and keep doing it until you reach your destination. This is the BEV conception that will wipe out any gasser on the market because its total cost per mile is unbeatable by any gasser.
Autonomous taxi life cost: 76,800 USD = (35,000 USD for taxi + 28,800 USD for life electricity + 17,000 USD for life maintenance - 4000 USD scrap value of battery)*****
Life cost per mile: 0.09 USD = $76,800/850,000 miles service life*****
Elon Musk estimates that Tesla will be ready with fully autonomous vehicles by 2020 and that the authorities will need 2 to 3 years more to make the necessary changes in the legislation to make it legal on all public roads. See http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/11154037/Teslas-Elon-Musk-autonomous-driving-is-five-years-away.html
----------
* Leaf assumptions: 1) Service life is 127,500 miles (= 85 miles battery range*1,500 deep cycles) which corresponds favorably to warranty for Nissan Leaf (100,000 miles in USD and 60,000 miles in Europe). 2) 0.28kwh is used to drive one mile (=24kwh battery/85miles range), 3) electricity cost is 4320 USD = (12 cents per kwh * 0.28kwh* 127,500 miles), 4) maintenance cost for tires, brakes, coolant, etc is 200 USD per 10,000 miles so 2550 USD = (127,500/10,000)*200 USD, 5) scrap value of battery after 127,500 miles is 1000 USD.
** Prius assumptions: 1) Service life is 160,000 miles, 2) long-term price of gasoline is 3 USD, 3) it gets 50mpg so 9,600 USD spend on gasoline = (160,000/50)*$3, 4) maintenance cost for oil change, tires, brakes, coolant, etc is 250 USD per 10,000 miles so 4000 USD = (160,000/10,000)*250 USD.
*** Tesla P85D assumptions: 1) Service life is 202,400 miles (= 253 miles battery range*800 deep cycles) which is much less that the unlimited mileage warranty for Tesla. 2) 0.34kwh is used to drive one mile (=85kwh battery/253miles range), 3) electricity cost is 8,160 USD = (12 cents per kwh * 0.34kwh* 202,400 miles), 4) maintenance cost for tires, brakes, coolant, etc is 400 USD per 10,000 miles so 8,096 USD = (202,400/10,000)*400 USD, 5) scrap value of battery after 202,400 miles is 4000 USD.
**** Audi RS7 assumptions: 1) Service life is 160,000 miles, 2) long-term price of gasoline is 3 USD, 3) it gets 19mpg so 25,263 USD spend on gasoline = (160,000/19)*$3, 4) maintenance cost for oil change, tires, brakes, coolant, etc is 500 USD per 10,000 miles so 8000 USD = (160,000/10,000)*500 USD.
***** Fully autonomous taxi assumptions: 1) Service life is 850,000 miles (= 85 miles battery range*10,000 deep cycles) which corresponds favorably to warranty for Toshibas lithium titanate batteries (see http://www.scib.jp/en/product/detail.htm). 2) 0.28kwh is used to drive one mile (=24kwh battery/85miles range), 3) electricity cost is 28,800 USD = (12 cents per kwh * 0.28kwh* 850,000 miles), 4) maintenance cost for tires, brakes, coolant, etc is 200 USD per 10,000 miles so 17,000 USD = (850,000/10,000)*200 USD, 5) scrap value of battery after 850,000 miles is 4000 USD. 6) The Leaf sized vehicle costs 35,000 USD with a 24kwh battery. It is assumed 12000 USD (=24*$500) can be attributed to the battery, 6,000 USD for autonomous technology (computers, sensors and redundancy of critical systems) and 17,000 USD for other car expenses all items including gross margins.
Posted by: Account Deleted | 09 February 2015 at 02:05 AM