Nisan's and similar e-taxis being developed for NYC and other places could be ideal as driverless transporters.

Smart phones together with appropriate (UBER like) application could be used to guide the closest e-vehicle for pick-up. More passengers could be served on the way to further reduce traffic load.

A few thousand such driverless e-vehicles could eliminate may private cars and city buses from the streets.

Many people could do without a private car.

Cities, States, Provinces and Federal governments could invest into the system to reduce GHG, pollution, travel delays, accidents, injuries and fatalities and reduce health cost.

Roger: Your parents are a different generation from the one coming up.
I think we will see autonomous cars used for short trips like to the grocery, Costco, AND to public transit--probably PRT which is simply autonomous vehicles on elevated rail. Yes, some people will want their status vehicle or one for travel, but not for everyday use. The aging population will help drive (pardon the pun) this trend.

Roger, I share your concerns about job creation and other social ills. I don't think paying them to drive vehicles is necessarily the answer. We need to address these issues as a society, but maintaining outmoded work models is not the answer. India used to require people to spin yarn at home in order to keep them employed. That did not work out so well.

Roger your parents (or anybody else) do not have to forego social status by dropping car ownership. They could order a fully loaded autonomous Model X (with a 150,000 USD sticker price) for every trip they make and still save money compared to owning a 80,000 USD car parked in the garage most of the time.
Congestion is minimized with autonomous cars for reasons in addition to those ai_vin mentions. Autonomous cars can safely keep a shorter distance to other vehicles at higher speed than any human driver can do. You can also increase the speed at highways. No need for a 65 mph speed limit in all lanes on the highway if autonomous cars can do it safely at 85 mph.

Also most people today drive alone in large cars with 4 to 7 seats. An autonomous taxi service will not send you a 7 seater if you order travel for one at the lowest fair. It will send you a standard one seater with a build in office table for your laptop to get work done or for entertainment. That one seater will take up much less space on the roads. Also autonomous taxis are online cars that know about congestions in real time and can find alternative roads to avoid it.

I think that the fully autonomous vehicles in this study are mainly private users, also it makes several big assumptions about vehicle longevity.

There is no convincingly direct correlation to miles and end of service life for a modern vehicle.

If a vehicle is properly maintained, and parts are made available, it can pretty much go on indefinitely with little to no problems. Look to courier vehicles, 300k -800k miles with only minor repairs... Yes some did need some expensive repairs, but usually you can get there no problem on almost any make with only minor things like half shafts and suspension, and oil seals.
Most problems get expensive if ignored, especially regarding a catalyst/emissions.

You also have to remember that it will probably be much harder to crash an autonomous car lowering insurance rates, the need for a second vehicle goes away, thus all the expensive upkeep and maint. Associated with it goes away.

Again usually age kills cars, or wrecks...

My hypothesis is that autonomous vehicles remove usually abusive drivers from the situation, both in carelessness of driving and poor driving habits. Better behavior can make cars last longer. I'd wager with good autonomous cars we still keep parity with the 11.4years or even increase that number. Without as many car wrecks to remove cars from the road there will probably be a good number in service. Keep in mind dealers are pushing service contracts, an autonomous vehicle can basically go service itself while you're at work, these cars will probably require by law maintenance, due to the publics apprehension with technology.

Yes more vehicle miles per vehicle, but I'd wager that with public/private business transportation ccar pooling would rapidly increase creating a lower annual nu.ber of road miles. Most cars every day are driven by one driver and no occupants. That situation can easily change with ride sharing smart routing and car pooling. I'd wager many households won't own cars, they wont need too. Especially if taxi rates are below what it would cost a person to own a vehicle.

Vehicles are the second largest purchase many make, new and used vehicle sales make up more than 25% of the tax base for almost every state in the US, the economy will have to change if autonomous cars be come rather successful.

If you figure ~$400-600/month long term for a car, purchase price maint. Insurance etcetera: ride share/ taxi services only need to hit around $0.50 a mile to be competitive. BEVs and other advances like car pooling will sink operating costs to a few pennies a mile. There is money to be had, therefore it will happen.

Henrik may be close to reality.

Driverless shared electrified vehicles (various sizes and makes) could and will start to reduce congestion on city streets and highways by 2025 or so. By picking 2 to 8 passengers on the way, the number of cars/vehicles on the road will be progressively reduced and so would be accidents, insurance cost, health care cost etc.

Composite or aluminum alloy future e-vehicles could and will last over 500,000 miles with minimum maintenance, specially when used as taxis or shared vehicles.

Many current drivers and mechanics will have to be retrained as Solar Cells and storage units installers, automated quick charge stations installers, home slow charge units etc etc.

CheeseEater88: You introduce an interesting idea for car sharing. My guess is that the software could allow riders to choose private or shared rides and charge differential pricing accordingly. That way the inefficiencies of many stops (the major problem with bus and light rail) can be eliminated for those who are willing to pay. Others can save $.

I have now made the calculation of the business case for autonomous taxi BEVs fully realistic by also including insurance cost. Furthermore, the cost of the autonomous BEV taxi is now compared to the case of owning a Toyota Camry and the cost of using a Camry with a human taxi driver.

The conclusion is that the autonomous BEV taxi will cost you 0.16 USD per mile to drive. The self-owned Camry will cost you 0.41 USD per mile or about 500 USD per month if you drive 15,000 miles per year (= ($0.41*15,000/12). Finally, the human operated taxi Camry will cost you 1.41 USD per mile which is representative of actual taxi rates.

Reducing the cost of taxi driving from 1.41 USD to 0.16 USD per mile using an autonomous BEV taxi is simply revolutionary. The world will change for the better as a result. Fewer traffic accidents, no air pollution from land transportation, no import of oil for making transportation fuels, no wasted time by traffic congestion. Time spend for transportation can be used productively to sleep, eat, work or for entertainment or education. The average American household can reduce transportation expenses from 500 USD per month per car needed in household to 200 USD per car (= ($0.16*15,000/12). This is as big as it gets for the automotive industry.

Documentation for costs to drive one mile:

1) Life cost to own Toyota Camry: 65,133 USD = (23,000 USD for Camry + 16,000 USD for life gasoline + 4,800 USD for life maintenance + 21,333 USD for life car insurance).

Life cost per mile: 0.41 USD = $65,133/160,000 miles service life.

2) Life cost of Toyota Camry with human taxi driver: 225,133 USD = (23,000 USD for Camry + 16,000 USD for life gasoline + 4,800 USD for life maintenance + 21,333 USD for life car insurance + 160,000 USD for taxi driver).

Life cost per mile: 1.41 USD = $225,133 /160,000 miles service life.

Now consider a fully autonomous taxi with an ultra durable 24kwh lithium titanate battery (10,000 cycles) giving it about 85 miles of range and a service life of 850,000 miles. With autonomous driving the range issue and charging time issue no longer exists as you can change the vehicle in seconds to go an additional 85 miles and keep doing it until you reach your destination. This is the BEV conception that will wipe out any gasser on the market because its total cost per mile is unbeatable by any gasser.

3) Life cost of autonomous BEV taxi: 133,467 USD = (35,000 USD for BEV taxi + 28,800 USD for life electricity + 17,000 USD for life maintenance + 56,667 USD for life car insurance - 4000 USD scrap value of battery).

Life cost per mile: 0.16 USD = $133,467/850,000 miles service life.

Elon Musk estimates that Tesla will be ready with fully autonomous vehicles by 2020 and that the authorities will need 2 to 3 years more to make the necessary changes in the legislation to make it legal on all public roads. See http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/11154037/Teslas-Elon-Musk-autonomous-driving-is-five-years-away.html

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Add 1) Toyota Camry assumptions: 1) Service life is 160,000 miles. 2) Long-term price of gasoline is 3 USD. 3) It gets 30 mpg so 16,000 USD spend on gasoline = (160,000/30)*$3. 4) Maintenance cost for oil change, tires, brakes, coolant, etc is 300 USD per 10,000 miles so 4,800 USD = (160,000/10,000)*300 USD. 5) Insurance cost is 2000 USD per 15000 miles so life car insurance is 21,333 USD = (160,000/15,000)*$2000.

Add 2) Toyota Camry taxi assumptions: 1) Service life is 160,000 miles. 2) Long-term price of gasoline is 3 USD. 3) It gets 30 mpg so 16,000 USD spend on gasoline = (160,000/30)*$3. 4) Maintenance cost for oil change, tires, brakes, coolant, etc is 300 USD per 10,000 miles so 4,800 USD = (160,000/10,000)*300 USD. 5) Insurance cost is 2000 USD per 15000 miles so life car insurance is 21,333 USD = (160,000/15,000)*$2000. 6) Hourly pay to chauffeur is 20 USD and hourly markup for time wasted and taxi company overhead is another 20 USD. Operating hours in service for life of car assuming 40 mph is 4000 hours =(160,000/40) so total life cost of chauffeur and taxi company overhead is 160,000 USD = (4000*($20+$20)).

Add 3) Fully autonomous BEV taxi assumptions: 1) Service life is 850,000 miles (= 85 miles battery range*10,000 deep cycles) which corresponds favorably to warranty for Toshibas lithium titanate batteries (see http://www.scib.jp/en/product/detail.htm). 2) 0.28kwh is used to drive one mile (=24kwh battery/85miles range), 3) electricity cost is 28,800 USD = (12 cents per kwh * 0.28kwh* 850,000 miles) which could be much lower off peak, 4) maintenance cost for tires, brakes, coolant, etc is 200 USD per 10,000 miles so 17,000 USD = (850,000/10,000)*200 USD, 5) scrap value of battery after 850,000 miles is 4000 USD. 6) Insurance cost is 1000 USD per 15000 miles so life car insurance is 56,667 USD = (850,000/15,000)*$1000. The lower car insurance for autonomous vehicles assumes that they are twice as good as human drivers to avoid accidents. 7) The Leaf sized vehicle costs 35,000 USD with a 24kwh battery. It is assumed 12000 USD (=24kwh*$500) can be attributed to the battery pack, 6,000 USD for autonomous technology (computers, sensors and redundancy of critical systems) and 17,000 USD for other car expenses. All costs are including gross margins.

Autonomous cars won't reduce traffic congestion, as people would go about their business as usual in the cars of the same size. Instead of driving they may choose to sleep while being driven to destination, but they would occupy the same area of the road anyway.

The way to reduce congestion would be to split (one) wide lane in two mini lanes and introduce narrow cars, no wider than 1.25 m, incl mirrors (cameras).
US Interstate highways have lanes 12 ft wide, which is 3.65 m. Split that in half, you get two 1.80 m lanes. Or two mini-lanes. Instead of HOV lane. Or somehow combine those 2 things.
I had this idea for a few years, and the other day I saw the right vehicle for it.
It's a single seater EV, range 110 km. Width 1.25 m, fully enclosed - Colibri EV.
Previous Japanese Kei cars were 1.25 m wide, now they can be wider, but they have 2 seats abreast, I'm thinking of one-seater, possibly with second seat behind, like in Renault Twingo.

http://www.bbc.com/autos/story/20150128-meet-the-tiny-colibri-germanys-one-seat-wonder
http://www.innovative-mobility.com/en/colibri/Specs.php

It has in-floor battery which makes it stable, and more difficult for malicious overturning by vandals (happens with the Smart).
IMO a car 1.25 m wide, incl mirrors, can be safely driven in 1.80 m lane, up to 70-80 kph (43-50 mph).
Single seater, enough, over 80% of cars driven to work carry only one person.

The policy of using the lane w/ 2 mini lanes could be flexible, tailored for max throughput in rush hours, when only narrow cars would be allowed in those lanes, and required to use only one mini lane. The mini lanes could be shared with motorbikes. It could create market for trikes or reverse-trikes. French Poste introduced small trikes for deliveries.
In city areas with low speed limit, one of those lanes (closer to sidewalk) could also be shared with push bikes.
Such cars could be made the same for right and left-hand markets, reducing development and production costs.
What do you think?

@Henrik,
You stated: "The average American car do 15,000 miles per year so each autonomous taxi can replace 17 to 18 ordinary cars."

Except that if each autonomous taxi will carry only one person per trip to work, you will still need a lot of vehicles, and the streets will still be very crowded, just the same.
If each autonomous taxi can carry 4 persons, without an human attendant to watch over them, they may do crazy things to each other (molestation, fighting, etc...)and then will sue your company for damages.

With a 10-12 passenger van jitney service and a human attendant to watch over them, you can remove 8 cars off the street for each van. Let's say that each human attendant is paid $10 per hour without health benefit since they will only be employed part-time, and the van has average speed of 30 mph and carry 10 passengers during peak hours, then the extra cost of having a human attendant would be $10 divided by 30mph divided by 10 passengers = $0.03 per passenger mile. This cost is negligible in the larger scheme of things considering the fact that average cost per mile for automobile ownership is $0.608 per mile in 2012. Source:
http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_03_17.html

@Alex,
I came to the same conclusion to yours many decades ago, however, the safety of the narrow and featherweight vehicle is severely lacking, and you can only remove 1 car off the road for every 2 narrow vehicles in used. Even with dedicated lanes for narrow-track-width vehicles, collisions among these flimsy and marginally-stable vehicles would result in significant injuries and traffic obstruction.

However, using a 10-12-passenger van for jitney service, safety is guaranteed, while one van can remove 7-8 cars off the street, and the passengers do not have to drive, thus can make use of these quality times in a large and stable moving platform for productive work.

Road congestion may be taking care of itself;
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/DOT-Miles-Traveled.php

"In the big picture, there are profound behavioral issues apart from gasoline prices that are influencing miles traveled. These would include the demographics of an aging population in which older people drive less, continuing high unemployment, the ever-growing ability to work remote in the era of the Internet and the use of ever-growing communication technologies as a partial substitute for face-to-face interaction."

http://uspirg.org/sites/pirg/files/reports/A%20New%20Direction%20vUS.pdf

"The Driving Boom — a six decade-long period of steady increases in per-capita driving in the United States — is over.

Americans drive fewer total miles today than we did nine years ago, and fewer per person than we did at the end of Bill Clinton's first term. The unique combination of conditions that fueled the Driving Boom — from cheap gas prices to the rapid expansion of the workforce during the Baby Boom generation — no longer exists. Meanwhile, a new generation — the Millennials — sees a new American Dream that is less dependent on driving."

An autonomous BEV that is only 4.5 feet wide and has two seats around a center office table could drive side by side on the same lane and in train formation with similar autonomous cars. That would lower the air drag and get more people through without adding lanes. Such formations would be impossible with human drivers but not with AI drivers that can react instantly and exploit the also nearly zero latency of a fully BEV drive train where you get full torque or braking power in milliseconds. The problem with humans and combustion engines is they both have high latencies. Another problem with human drivers is that they slow down to study traffic accidents and other stuff instead of just speeding on as they should to get the traffic moving. Autonomous cars will not do that.

I do not believe for one second that a narrow but tall two seat autonomous BEV will be instable. It has a heavy battery and two heavy engines at the floor of the car and nearly zero weigh above wheel height apart from the passengers. At high speeds in windy weather it could deploy fins to become even more stable but I don't think that would be necessary if you do the stability calculations.