In a new research report, “The $102 Billion Opportunity in Partial Automation for Cars”, Lux Research calculates that the revenue opportunity from advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) features will grow from $2.4 billion today to $102 billion in 2030, corresponding to a 26% CAGR. The new estimates for the total opportunity exceed those of previous Lux Research reports due to a combination of stronger-than-expected automotive sales in 2014 and a more granular approach to the sensors and technologies that enable ADAS features.
Although “the hype around autonomous vehicles often reaches levels that defy logic,” Lux tartly notes, the foundational technologies that are being progressively deployed as part of that technology roadmap can be rationally analyzed for opportunity.
The increasing application of more advanced driver-assist features is essentially becoming mandatory, Lux says in the report, and forms the basis for ever increasing platforms of capability and functionality.
ADAS are entering the latest generation of vehicles with common features available today including lane departure warning; automatic parking; autonomous emergency braking; and lane keeping assist.
ADAS features are enabled by sensors such as radar, lidar, cameras, mapping technology, and software. The developers and suppliers of these technologies stand to profit as the automotive industry progresses toward the autonomous car.
Among the findings of the report:
Basic driver-assist features offer early opportunities, with a $29.6 billion opportunity by 2022.
Enhanced driver-assist features such as adaptive cruise control and lane merge assist offer the largest opportunity to automakers and tier-one manufacturers, expected to grow to $73 billion in 2030.
Partial autonomy features lag in onset but grow to a $22.7 billion opportunity by 2030.
In terms of technology that will be introduced, cars using lidar sensors will hit the road in 2018, although lidar will be a small portion of the overall opportunity in the automotive market, growing to $2.5 billion by 2030.
Fully autonomous driving may happen by 2030, but only in highly restricted environments and likely only at low speeds. Those who see this as disappointing are missing “the big picture”, Lux suggests.
Sensor manufacturers stand to make huge profits as automobiles come to heavily rely on sensor information as well as on connectivity and external map data as ADAS advances. This growth of ADAS features will also drive a need for more monitoring technology to track driver awareness and readiness to regain control of the vehicle. In parallel, while the ADAS features market will be dominated by classic automotive manufacturers and suppliers, wildcard companies like Uber and Google will create new mobility platforms that may redefine public transport.
Temper the hype, but not at the expense of realizing the massive growth opportunity and underlying disruption that ADAS brings.—Lux Research