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Navigant forecasts connected vehicle revenue to grow to $36.6B by 2025

According to a new report from Navigant Research, worldwide revenue from connected vehicle systems is expected to grow from $96.3 million annually in 2016 to $36.6 billion by 2025. Vehicle connectivity for this report includes vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V); vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I); vehicle-to-pedestrian (V2P); vehicle-to-cyclist (V2C); and other combinations of communicating with vehicles. These are collectively grouped together as using vehicle-to-external (vehicle-to-X, or V2X) communications.

Navigant anticipates DSRC-based V2X systems to begin deployment from OEMs in 2016 with rapid expansion over the next decade. In addition to the embedded OEM systems on new vehicles, aftermarket retrofit systems and new smartphones with DSRC capability are expected to be adopted in the existing vehicle parc. The combined deployment of OEM and aftermarket systems is projected to grow rapidly in developed markets, with about 80%–90% of LD vehicles in North America and Western Europe using the technology by 2025. Even Eastern Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa are projected to approach 50% penetration during the next decade, primarily through adoption of smartphone-based DSRC.

The push to deliver safer cars with lower emissions is driving the development of a number of supporting technologies, including electrification and automated driving systems that rely on real-time data to vehicles, drivers, and pedestrians, through connected vehicle systems. The US Department of Transportation (DOT) has projected that V2X could help prevent 70 to 80 percent of vehicle crashes, said Sam Abuelsamid, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “Connected vehicles have enormous potential to provide drivers with increased situational awareness of upcoming hazards and congestion.

Connectivity is also a key enabling technology for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), according to the report. The limited electric driving range of most current PEVs makes it important for drivers to take advantage of opportunistic charging and be able to remotely monitor the battery charging status. Even conventional internal combustion engine vehicles can benefit from real-time information provided through connected vehicle systems, to help avoid congestion, saving time and energy.

The report, Connected Vehicles, examines the market for connected vehicles, with a focus on the key components of V2X communications technology and factors that may influence successful deployment. The study provides an analysis of how these factors, including the cost of hardware, regulations, potential societal benefits, and security and privacy concerns, are projected to affect automakers, hardware and software suppliers, regulators, and intelligent transportation infrastructure operators. Global market forecasts of original and aftermarket sales of dedicated short-range communications equipment for light, medium, and heavy duty vehicles, broken down by vehicle segment and region, extend through 2025. The report also provides a review of major market drivers and barriers related to connected vehicles and key industry players within the competitive landscape.


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