As usual for this sort of report we don't get enough details to make much sense of it.

Everyone else except for BYD shows a step change down to lower costs, but not them.

Why?

The target for BYD is also 35Gwh of capacity by 2020, not 30Gwh by 2025:
http://www.autoevolution.com/news/byd-wants-to-equal-teslas-gigafactory-capacity-by-2020-93384.html

Since they are in the largest auto market in the world with the heaviest incentives for electrification, and also produce electric buses by the thousand with a target of 40,000 of them a year by 2020, with the Chinese bus market alone at 70,000 a year for buses by then, Lux is unaccountably negative about their prospects.

Already out of date. We've been able to confirm that Telsa's cost is already at ~$240/kWh and they expect a 30% drop in 2017 when the Gigafactory comes online. And that does NOT include the ~8% drop they've already been seeing.

And yes, that's just Tesla, but that puts them under $170/kWh by 2017-2018. I doubt the rest of the industry will lag them by 8 years LOL

Hi DaveD:

Have you got a link for the confirmed $240kwh?
I haven't seen anything solid, just guesses.

@Anthony:

AFAIK Tesla are not selling any of them as yet, it is unclear whether they are talking about $250 at the cell level or pack level, and unclear whether the balance of plant is included.

Tesla have also never been shy about selling at a loss if they reckon that they can come to dominate a market, and there are also large subsidies floating around which may or may not be accounted for in the %250kwh.

Davemart,
Yes, I saw someone that supposedly had sources inside posting that they were at $240...I'll try to find the link.
I had figured it was $250 at the pack level based on their selling price and typical markups to cover warranty, shipping, etc. Of course I'm not assuming they're selling at a loss as you may.

And we all have to state the assumptions we're making to claim anything about profit or loss. If you assume they sell 1,000 units, then it HAS to be a loss. If you assume 1,000,000 units, then it's probably a profit. But I don't have their equipment costs or amortization schedule so it's an educated guess.
Lastly, when you throw in other factors like whether they can spread costs across cars and home units, whether they WANT to write off a loss now for some bullsh@t tax purpose this year, etc, etc, etc...it's all funny pretend profit/loss anyway.

It is easy to verify Tesla's battery prices

350 USD per kwh for the 10kwh residential powerwall.

250 USD per kwh for the 100kwh industry/utility intended powerpacks.

See http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-unveils-line-of-home-and-industrial-battery-packs-1430461622
or
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Reporting-Live-From-the-Tesla-Mystery-Product-Unveiling

These prices are the current 2015 price at the battery pack level including gross margins of at least 20% as Tesla does not sell anything at a loss. The prices does not include installation cost and items for connecting more packs into larger systems. Such costs could add up to 250 USD per kwh for residential installations and 50 to 100 USD per kwh for industrial instalations. In all likelihood Tesla buys the cells for the powerpacks from Panasonic and currently assemble the packs at Fremont, California. Tesla has sold hundreds of packs and powerwalls to initial pilot customers but Tesla will not be able to make severel hundreds of packs per months until 4Q, 2015 and true scaling for thousands of units per month will not beging until sometime in 2016 at the gigafactory. Tesla's 50GWh has the capacity to make 500,000 100kwh powerpacks per year in 2020 if that was the only thing it made or 5 million 10kwh powerwalls per year.

In 2020 I expect Tesla's 250 USD pack level kwh price to drop to 165 USD per kwh in acordance with the estimated 33% price drop enabled by the unpresidented level of scaling and vertical integration at that factory. Hopefully, Tesla will get enough orders for their vehicles and powerpacks to start construction of another 50Gwh factory before 2020. We will see.

One last thing. Forget about other battery manufactores being able to make batteries at less cost than Tesla. It will not happen unless they also start making 50Gwh factories and noboby apart from Tesla has plans for that. And forget about cutting cost from making battery factories in low income countries. The labor cost at teslas 50Ghw factory is less than 5% of total cost. It is far more important to produce in scale and at proximity to your end customers. Therefore I expect the next 50Gwh factory to be build in Europe and the third in China. The advantage of building in China is to avoid taxes and to be in proximity to customers (labor costs are insignificant).

'"This is just a guess right now, but maybe somewhere around 20%," said Musk. Of course, that would by the profit margin for stationary storage products once the company hits mass production at the Gigafactory in 2017.'

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102654541

So that is not right now assumed profits, and the notion that they are going to hit 20% profit even after the GF opens would be remarkable indeed, as stationary storage is a commodity market where 4% is good going.

Of course, Musk has predicted profitability for Tesla in the past, but it is now pushed out to beyond 2020.

@laszlo:

There are plenty of other technologies than Lithium on the horizon, but at the moment that is what is making the running in stationary storage.

Progress for Eos does not seem to be very fast since two years ago:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2013/05/eos-20130521.html

High energy density capacitors with their ~million cycle lives would be ideal, but again they are on the horizon, at an even greater distance.

Lux is talking nonsense though, even in terms of the lithium storage market.

Achieving lower battery costs is an important step to more widespread acceptance of electric cars but far from the only necessary step. A generally accepted electric car must have performance features roughly equivalent to a similar gas powered car. A Honda Accord or Toyota Camry can be purchased for about $25,000. It is unclear whether gas costs savings will offset added electricity costs and consumers tend to significantly discount the value of savings over time when comparing up front costs so an initial ~$25,000 to $30,000 price tag must be one target. Both gas powered cars have a 500 to 550+ mile range per tank. There are gas stations everywhere and a tank can be refilled in less than 5 minutes. Despite one earlier comment, range and convenient recharging infrastructure are two additional, probably very significant, hurdles. The average lifetime for one of these somewhat better made gas powered cars is probably at least 15 years, perhaps approaching 20 years. And despite some recent publicity, many car models have a relatively high reputation for reliability. Lifetime and reliability are additional hurdles. So while progress is being made, and perhaps a niche market may be possible, general acceptance of electric cars appears to be considerable further off than the enthusiasts would have us believe.

"Of course, Musk has predicted profitability for Tesla in the past, but it is now pushed out to beyond 2020."

There are multiple types of profitability.

Tesla sells their ModS EVs for about 27% more than it costs to manufacture them. That is profitable.

Tesla takes all their profits from the ModS and uses other capital to invest in business expansion. That extra investment in growing the company shows up on the annual profit/loss statement as a loss.

It's not that money is being lost. Money is being invested which records as an expenditure. If the "27%" were being spent on hookers and blow, that would be a loss.