In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts that North American plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales will exceed 1.1 million annually by 2024. The report, Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts, provides data and forecasts for LD PEV sales in North America, including US states, MSAs, and utility service territories and Canadian provinces and cities.
To date, North America is the strongest market for light duty (LD) plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), with more than 133,000 sold in 2014. Navigant forecasts the US will continue to be the largest market throughout the forecast period, with annual PEV sales in 2024 exceeding 860,000 in the conservative scenario and 1.2 million in the aggressive. Navigant Research estimates this market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of between 14.7% and 18.6% between 2015 and 2024.
Navigant expects that annual sales in Canada—which is about 1 year behind the US in terms of vehicle availability—will reach more than 74,000 PEVs in the conservative scenario and more than 91,000 in the aggressive by 2024.
US PEV sales are concentrated in California, where the vehicles already account for more than 3% of the state’s total LDV market. State incentives, alongside the mandates of the California Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, will likely continue to push PEV penetrations in the state to between 15% and 22% by 2024, Navigant projects.
Navigant expects metro areas in California to show the largest PEV population growth, as the Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, and San Diego areas are all within the top 10 metro markets for PEV sales.
Other ZEV Program participating states are expected to see similar growth. Outside of the ZEV states, PEV sales will grow most quickly in states with large vehicle markets, high PEV incentives, well-developed infrastructure, and a high PEV index. Navigant expects that Hawaii, Washington, and Georgia are the only other states besides the 10 ZEV states that will have penetration rates comparable to ZEV states—i.e., above 7% in 2024.
Automaker adoption of PEV technologies as adaptations for existing model lines is growing significantly, and these technologies are being placed into larger vehicle segments such as sport utility vehicles (SUVs), trucks, and minivans. Similarly, the introduction of next-generation, fully electric vehicles with ranges near or above 200 miles and price points below $40,000 is expected to drastically increase mass-market PEV acceptance as a pragmatic transportation option.—Scott Shepard, Navigant Research analyst