IHS Automotive foresees that AC charging—i.e., Level 1 and 2 charging, the dominant type now—will play a crucial role in the public domain of the EV charging infrastructure. According to the report, approximately 10% of EV charging stations by 2020 will be within the public or semi-public domain, whereas the global DC fast charging stations are expected to be relatively low and located on the outskirts of cities and highway infrastructure, rather than located in dense urban areas.
The report finds that the deployments of the charging stations are dependent on a highly variable price range. The price can range from US$395 for a simple domestic wall box to more than $35,000 for a DC charging station. This figure does not include installation costs that could add $10,000 in the case of a DC charging station, depending on its location and accessibility.
Japan is a key growth region for the EV charging stations and recently passed a key milestone by having more EV charging stations than gasoline stations, said said Ben Scott, senior analyst at IHS Automotive. In Europe, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Norway currently lead the way in terms of a number of charging station deployments.
We recognize the potential of Germany and France. They are the ‘sleeping giants’ of e-mobility, but their EV charging station networks are currently underdeveloped with respect to the size of those countries.—Ben Scott
Scott also said that the sales of electric vehicles in Germany and France have been relatively low in comparison to other European countries.
Fast charging. Japan has more than 2,800 DC fast charging stations, using CHAdeMO, the Japanese fast-charging standard. Japan accounts for roughly 50% of the global total of all CHAdeMO stations, according to the IHS Automotive report.
Europe and North America also have their own fast charging standard, Combined Charger System (CCS). This is supported by the majority of OEMs, such as Audi, BMW, Daimler, Chrysler, Ford, GM, Porsche, and Volkswagen. Vehicles with fast DC charging capability based on the CCS standard have only been on the road since 2013.
From 2010 to 2014, IHS forecasts that just 7% of electric vehicles globally use the CCS charging system and about 65% use the CHAdeMO standard. IHS expects this will change over the short to mid-term, as more vehicles with the CCS standard enter the vehicle parc (vehicles on the road). There will gradually be a more even split between the two DC fast-charging standards.
PHEV production to exceed EV production. According to the report, the mix of plug-in vehicles (EVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles - PHEVs) in the vehicle parc also has an impact on the rollout of EV charging station deployment. IHS Automotive forecasts that in 2016 for the first time, global PHEV production will exceed pure electric vehicle production and is expected to remain that way for the short to mid-term.
The accelerated production of PHEVs is motivated by meeting CO2 targets while remaining cost effective.