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UK study provides observational evidence linking ocean circulation to weather and decadal-scale climate change

A new study by scientists from the University of Southampton and the UK’s National Oceanography Centre (NOC) suggests that the global climate is on the verge of broad-scale change that could last for a number of decades. The change to the new set of climatic conditions is associated with a cooling of the Atlantic, and is likely to bring drier summers in Britain and Ireland; accelerated sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States; and drought in the developing countries of the Sahel region. Since this new climatic phase could be half a degree cooler, it may well offer a brief reprise from the rise of global temperatures, as well as resulting in fewer hurricanes hitting the United States, the researchers suggested.

The study, published in Nature, shows that ocean circulation is the link between weather and decadal scale climatic change. It is based on observational evidence of the link between ocean circulation and the decadal variability of sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.

Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences. Prominently, this is manifested in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperatures. Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall, European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures.

It is widely believed that ocean circulation drives the phase changes of the AMO by controlling ocean heat content. However, there are no direct observations of ocean circulation of sufficient length to support this, leading to questions about whether the AMO is controlled from another source. Here we provide observational evidence of the widely hypothesized link between ocean circulation and the AMO.

— McCarthy et al.

These climatic phases, referred to as positive or negative AMO’s, are the result of the movement of heat northwards by a system of ocean currents. This movement of heat changes the temperature of the sea surface, which has a profound impact on climate on timescales of 20-30 years. The strength of these currents is determined by the same atmospheric conditions that control the position of the jet stream. Negative AMO’s occur when the currents are weaker and so less heat is carried northwards towards Europe from the tropics.

The strength of ocean currents has been measured by a network of sensors, called the RAPID array, which have been collecting data on the flow rate of the Atlantic meridonal overturning circulation (AMOC) for a decade.

The observations of AMOC from the RAPID array, over the past ten years, show that it is declining. As a result, we expect the AMO is moving to a negative phase, which will result in cooler surface waters. This is consistent with observations of temperature in the North Atlantic.

—Dr. David Smeed, NOC and lead scientist of the RAPID project

Since the RAPID array has only been collecting data for last ten years, a longer data set was needed to prove the link between ocean circulation and slow climate variations. Therefore this study instead used 100 years of sea level data, maintained by the National Oceanography Centre’s permanent service for mean sea level. Models of ocean currents based on this data were used to predict how much heat would be transported around the ocean, and the impact this would have on the sea surface temperature in key locations.

By reconstructing ocean circulation over the last 100 years from tide gauges that measure sea level at the coast, we have been able to show, for the first time, observational evidence of the link between ocean circulation and the AMO.

—Dr. Ivan Haigh, lecturer in coastal oceanography at the University of Southampton


  • Gerard D. McCarthy, Ivan D. Haigh, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Jeremy P. Grist & David A. Smeed (2015) “Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations” Nature 521, 508–510 doi: 10.1038/nature14491



Whoa, whoa, whoa....were these people bought off by the oil, gas & coal industries? WTF? Ocean currents are the cause of climate change now and not C02?


I always assumed that ocean currents were impacted by climate, not the other way around. Observations seem a little weak without at least a hypothetical cause for the change.


First of all, like all studies of the world's unimaginably complex climate, this is one sliver of understanding, perhaps correct in its supposition, of a few elements of the global system. It places great doubt on the reflexive CO2 = Bad Climate theory, though by no means contradicts what we know to be true of the known characteristics of IR absorption and subsequent energy "trapping".

FWIW, one of the phrases that may show some disconnect from current reality is the idea that this shift will result in "fewer hurricanes hitting the United States, the researchers suggested". How many fewer would that be? No major Hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) has made landfall in the Continental US in over 3500 days. So would it be pretty much zero for sure? Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy is already fairly dull for 2016 to date (see at weather underground:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/accumulated_cyclone_energy.asp?basin=al )

I have been reluctant to fork over $199 to get access to Nature's papers as so many of late have been awful, but this may nudge me back into a membership.


This report summary does not say anything new about AGW driven by greenhouse gases, specifically mentioning a masking or hiatus of global warming affects.

It seems to be exploring the forward projection of the affects of the most recently measured changes to ocean temp and now circulation and how that relates to observed slowdown in global temp rises.

The recent reports seem to be offering the reason for lower than expected surface heating and shows where that pacific ocean heat store is spilling into the Indian ocean.

The recent reports this seems to build on also offer possible scenarios of circulation disruption consistent with our current understanding of irregular as well as cyclical circulation flows and reversals including some ways that terrestrial climates have "flipped" or changed as indicated by historical data.

While the historical evidence offers excellent interpretative data, the specifics become as Herm says unimaginably complex.

Solar minima, deep ocean heating, melting polar ice and circulation changes are the signature of this slow moving train wreck- where the bits end up is a bit harder to see.

This is the lead in.



The strength of these currents is determined by the same atmospheric conditions that control the position of the jet stream.

The jet stream is of course driven by the difference in temperature between the Arctic and tropical air masses. When that difference is large, like it is in winter, the jet steam gets stronger/faster. When it is small, as it is during summer, the jet stream gets weaker/slower. AGW, as we all know, is causing the Arctic to warm up faster than the rest of the world so it makes sense the jet stream is getting even slower - and we see this when it meanders more often and farther, causing such things as deeper snows on the eastern seaboard.

That surface winds can drive surface currents in the ocean is nothing new, so yeah, I can see where these same atmospheric conditions that are slowing the jet stream could be not pushing the ocean currents as hard as well.


Meanwhile, elsewhere in the world: It is NOT getting cooler; http://inhabitat.com/indias-scorching-month-long-heatwave-kills-1400-and-melts-the-streets/

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