Navigant forecasts global smart urban mobility market to hit $25.1 billion in 2024
24 June 2015
The global smart urban mobility infrastructure and services market is expected to grow from $5.1 billion in 2015 to $25.1 billion in 2024, according to a new report from Navigant Research—a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.4%.
Navigant expects growth through 2018 to be rapid, at a rate of more than 20% annually. From 2019 onward, Naigant projects a slower pace—from around 20% from 2018 to 2019 to a 12% growth rate at the end of the forecast period. Navigant expects growth to slow in some of the developed country markets, which are early adopters of mobility solutions. This effect will be balanced by the introduction of advanced urban mobility systems in developing markets, especially China, according to the report.
The focus of the report is on advanced and often disruptive technologies that are enabling new smart mobility options, including advanced intelligent transportation systems (ITSs), public EV charging equipment and services, smart parking systems, carsharing and bikesharing programs, rideshare services, and congestion charging programs. These are the technologies or services that increase the connectivity of urban mobility, with the potential to support new forms of cross-functional integration (e.g., EV charging and utilities).
Navigant expects some of the biggest opportunities are expected to lie in the new transportation services sector, with carsharing and rideshare applications in particular being significant revenue generators. The analysts also project advanced ITSs to be very strong revenue generators, although the growth in this sector is less dramatic because the ITS sector is already mature. Public charging and smart parking are anticipated to show good growth, but are lower revenue opportunities overall. Navigant also projects that congestion charging schemes will make a comeback after a wane in interest over the past 5 to 8 years.
Cities have long been at the forefront of sustainable, multimodal mobility due to the transportation demands placed on a city by a large, densely located population, as well as the negative effects of congestion and pollution caused by choking traffic. The smart city movement today is pioneering an even more advanced approach to urban mobility, Navigant notes in its report, “Urban Mobility in Smart Cities”.
Cities are moving toward a model of on-demand mobility in which residents and visitors can take advantage of clean transportation options that meet their immediate needs. A few key technology developments over the last decade underpin this movement: the increasing availability of smartphones; the rise of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs); and the ability to connect vehicles, infrastructure, transportation managers, and end users.
This new form of mobility is both a public investment and private enterprise phenomenon, Navigant observes. In the smart urban mobility environment, infrastructure investments such as real-time traffic management, public charging networks, or smart parking systems are complemented by new mobility solutions such as carsharing services and rideshare apps. The ultimate smart urban mobility solution ties these together to allow users to see their full range of mobility options and access them on demand. Greater connectivity also allows city agencies to manage traffic and infrastructure assets in real-time to create more efficient mobility.
Beyond the overarching drivers of the smart urban mobility market—multi-modal connectivity and the need to control congestion and emissions—each region and country has distinct drivers and favors different types of solutions, the report notes.
Europe is a leader in advanced ITS adoption, ranging from real-time traffic management to congestion charging and low-emissions zones. This region has also seen a blossoming of carsharing services.
The United States is one of the biggest EV markets in the world, and the country has seen a proliferation of companies offering public charging. Carsharing has expanded into many major US cities and demand continues to grow, but possibly the biggest transformation is in rideshare apps such as Uber. These services have quickly become big businesses and are poised for further growth.
The diversity of countries in Asia Pacific has resulted in a variety of smart mobility adoption models. Japan, South Korea, and Singapore have been at the forefront of smart city adoption generally, and have already established effective, multimodal transportation systems. For example, carsharing is picking up in South Korea, but the country has lagged in EV adoption and public charging (although this is poised to change with new government-funded charging initiatives proposed for Seoul).
China presents the most intriguing opportunity in the Asia Pacific region, as cities in that country are grappling with major congestion and pollution problems. That said, China has often opted for more centralized command-and-control systems and is investing heavily in traditional infrastructure. However, there are efforts to establish more EVs usage and carsharing services, as well as advanced ITSs.