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Navigant expects global market for automotive Li-ion batteries to hit $30.6 billion in 2024; almost 4x 2015 market

In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts the global market for Li-ion batteries in light duty and medium/heavy duty vehicles will almost quadruple from $7.8 billion in 2015 to $30.6 billion in 2024.

This figure could be higher if emerging 48V micro-hybrid technology delivers on its promise of fuel efficiency at a low cost increment and a significant number of OEMs choose to implement it with Li-ion battery packs, Navigant said. In addition, the expected steady lowering of per-kilowatt-hour costs will encourage the plug-in electric vehicle market if manufacturers pass the savings on to customers.

Overall, Navigant expects the Li-ion battery capacity serving the automotive market (including light and heavy duty vehicles) to grow from about 15.9 GWh in 2015 to 93.1 GWh in 2024—a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.7%.

Demand for different types of electrically assisted vehicles will vary by region, the report suggests. Navigant projects North America to remain the biggest market for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) batteries, while battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales are expected to increase in Europe. The emergence of EVs in Asia Pacific will become more important for global automotive Li-ion battery demand across all categories toward the end of the forecast period.



Both the present cost (~ $490 per kWh) and the 2024 cost (~ $330 per kWh) of automotive Li-ion batteries, as well as the less than 4.4% annual decrease in cost seem quite pessimistic - perhaps a source of short-term comfort to ICE bigots but ultimately a disservice to clients.

Respective costs of $300 and $150 per kWh and an 8% annual decrease in cost would be more in line with current consensus and indicative of a possible EV tsunami circa 2025 - 2030, for which automotive companies must be prepared.

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Also for H1, 2015 global auto battery sales was 5Gwh see

So 15.9Gwh for 2015 is much too much. It will be more like 11Gwh. Tesla/Panasonic will have 50Gwh by 2020 up from 4Gwh+ this year. With Tesla already being 40% of the global auto battery market and growing at 50% per year and only long-range BEV producer predicting the future battery market is mostly about predicting how fast Tesla can grow.

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