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Tesla delivered 11,580 vehicles in Q3 of 2015

Tesla Motors reported delivering 11,580 vehicles in the third quarter of 2015, including the first few units of Model X. Despite one week of planned production shutdown, this delivery level represents a 49% increase over Q3 last year as well as the sixth consecutive quarter of growth.

Tesla noted that there may be small changes to this delivery count (usually well under 1%), as Tesla only counts a delivery if it is transferred to the end customer and all paperwork is correct.

Comments

Account Deleted

Apart from Musk and Tesla's chairman I noted that Sergey Brin Google's lees well known cofounder with a net worth of 40 billion USD took delivery of the fourth Model X ever build for customers. Then I found an interview with Sergey on BBC see link below that clearly shows that Sergey is deep into Google's self-driving program. I thought it was only Larry Page that was passionate about self-driving tech (net worth 34 billion USD). It just makes it so much more certain that self-driving BEVs are coming because it has nearly unlimited capital to back it up from the tech industry. Apple is hiring 1800 people now to work on developing the Apple BEV that may come in 2019 or 2020.

A rough estimate is that Tesla needs to invest 15 billion USD between now and 2020 to get to 500k production capacity per year and launch Model 3 and Roadster 2 and get a truly global distribution and super charging system. Next year Tesla will sell about 80k, 100k USD cars or get 8 billion USD in revenues. With gross profit of 25% Tesla can self-finance about 2 billion USD per year in investment. But Tesla is growing fast and so is their ability to self-finance their investment. My point is that Tesla will probably only need to issue 2 to 3 billion USD of stock between now and 2020 to fund their expansion. That is not going to be a problem. If Sergey decided it he cold fund all of Tesla's external capital needs until 2020 with less than 10% of his net wealth! Of cause he may not as he may consider Tesla a competitor. Nevertheless, he drives one now.

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34423292

Nick Lyons

I just hope Elon can get over his creeping elegance problem and get car to market faster. Hopefully, the Model III will be 'built to a price', and that 'just one more cool feature' will be put on the back burner.

Account Deleted

Nick the Model X is a luxury SUV and luxury SUVs are bought primarily by women. Women pay a lot of attention to elegance when deciding which SUV to buy. This is why Musk insisted that all of Model X's sensors were made so that they were out of sight. This is also why Musk forced the software engineers responsible for making the control software that opens the falcon doors to watch ballet. The first prototypes of those falcon doors was just optimized for speed and would have terrified its surroundings when opening. In order to make products that are truly loved by their owners they need a certain level of elegance and the Model X certainly got that.

However, I have learned that there were other more pressing reasons for delaying Model X. Musk feared the Model X if introduced 2 years ago with 4 wheel drive and autopilot and more space would have cannibalized the sales of their Model S that at that time did not have 4 wheel drive or autopilot. So it was imperative that the Model S was first upgraded to four wheel drive, autopilot and a bigger battery before the Model X was launched. This would also give Tesla a real world validation of their dual-motor drive-train before using it in the Model X. Moreover, Panasonic was not able to supply batteries for more than Tesla's Model S production in 2014 so there was no point in launching a new model if you were not able to build it in volume. Panasonic is now ready to deliver battery packs for perhaps 100k Model X and S in 2016 should it be needed. I think Tesla will not be able to reach more that 80k units in 2016 because of other production limitations. All in all the delay for Model X was the right decision and it has reduced the risk for the product launch considerably. To Tesla's surprise the orders for Model S increased dramatically after the launch of Model X. Musk speculated that buyers went to Tesla's website with the intention of ordering the Model X but when they saw its 12 months delivery time they opted for the Model S instead. The Model S still has a few advantages over Model X. It is faster, has more range and it cost less so no cannibalization for that car.

Nick Lyons

@Henrik: That's a nice story, but the word on the street is that Tesla can't keep a schedule and Elon's delivery date promises are vastly optimistic. Model X would have sold just fine without the trick doors, invisible sensors, panoramic windshield, etc. etc.

As competition heats up and the number of affluent, green-conscious buyers is exhausted, getting the Model III into production is going to be critical, and Tesla should be focused like a laser on that project, IMHO.

HarveyD

Agree with NL but not so sure that TESLA can meet delivery date and/or unit price for the Version III unless lower cost parts and sub-assemblies from Asia are used.

The first (under $35K) extended range BEVs, may not be from TESLA but from China, S-Korea, Japan, India, Mexico etc.

HarveyD

The new TPP agreement will allow car manufacturers to use 55% imported parts versus 35% without import fees. That could help TESLA to lower total unit cost by an extra 5% in the next 3 years or so.

Others will benefit from lower cost imported EV batteries, tires, electronics etc?

Account Deleted

Nick
Tesla is not selling cars to a limited pool of die-hard environmentalist. They are selling cars because their cars are the best cars that money can buy. There are no other cars around at 100k USD with the same level of power, elegance and utility as Tesla's cars. The non-polluting thing is just a nice benefit but not necessary for selling Tesla's cars. This is the problem with the short range BEVs that the old auto-industry are making. They can only be sold to that limited pool of die hard environmentalist because the cars are otherwise inferior to their equally priced gassers.

For Tesla things need to happen in a certain order or the company will not prevail. The launch of Model X is perfectly timed with Panasonic being able to supply the necessary battery cells. Also the gross profit made on Model S and Model X is absolutely necessary to finance the development and more importantly the production equipment for Model 3. Musk "accidently" tweeted that a Model 3 will come along with a Model Y build on the same power train as Model 3. The model Y will be a crossover with falcon doors. Production of these vehicles will not start until Tesla is ready to make its batteries at the Giga factory. Tesla also need to have earned enough money from Model S and Model X to finance a rapid expansion of that Giga factory (and other factories) that to begin with in 2017 is only 1/10th of its end capacity. In 2020 that factory will be over 10 million sq2 feet or the biggest building on the planet. In 2017 it will probably only be 1 million sq2 feet.

Other things I have learned is that Tesla opened a new European assembly factory with a 4000 units per months capacity in Europe (currently operating at 1800 units). It will get all the different Tesla parts needed to assemble any Tesla. That means European customers can now expect the same delivery lead time as USA where Tesla previously could deliver two months earlier than Europe or Asia. And sure enough I just confirmed that the reported delivery time in Europe and USA is now identical. This is just one of many important things that are happening at Tesla. Musk has said that Tesla is spending many more engineering hours on organising and developing production of Tesla cars than actually developing the cars. The challenging part is producing the cars in large numbers and at affordable costs it is not to develop the cars. This fact may surprise many people.

***
Harvey you don't have a clue.

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