The report suggests that BEV technologies will find additional vocations in the medium-duty (8,501 to 14,000 lbs. GVWR) market with continued penetration for delivery vehicles and shuttle buses. Battery electric transit buses will continue to increase their market share.

Heavy-duty (>14,000 lbs. GVWR) BEVs are currently being demonstrated in several vocations, such as drayage trucking service and refuse collection trucks. ARB staff anticipates that the number of electric drayage trucks will increase due to several on-going demonstrations of this technology with funding from the CEC, SCAQMD, and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).

Further, ARB’s own $25-million allocation to zero-emission drayage truck demonstrations as part of the AQIP and low carbon transportation Fiscal Year 2014-15 Funding Plan approved by ARB in June 2014 will greatly expand the number of zero-emission BEV drayage trucks. Further, heavy-duty short- and regional-haul trucks may see electrification building off the current BEV drayage truck demonstrations as may other delivery vehicle classes.

Primary barriers to market acceptance are battery cost and power density, highlighting a major issue restricting the applicability of BEVs in many vocations: limitations on vehicle range.

Battery cost is a major component in the overall cost of BEVs, with system costs currently in the $500 to $700 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) range—substantially more than the cost for a conventional diesel powerplant.

In a 2013 I-710 commercialization study, CALSTART estimated the cost of a 350 kWh battery system at more than $200,000 in 2012, with costs coming down to $111,000 by 2020 and $70,000 by 2030.

Further, the report notes, standardization of vehicle charging connectors, charging protocols and more widespread deployment of vehicle charging stations suitable for medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks and buses would allow BEVs to universally charge while away from their home base, increasing daily range and potentially allowing for smaller battery packs, reducing overall BEV costs and reducing the return on investment timeframe.

The report suggests that government, academia and industry can take a number of actions to support the deployment of battery-electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including:

1. Improving vehicle range;

2. Reducing the incremental cost;

3. Improving non-battery components;

4. Standardizing charging;

5. Running more demo projects;

6. Improving and continuing incentives; and

7. More regulatory activity, ch as Advanced Transit and Last Mile Delivery regulations, and the development and adoption of other regulations.

ARB staff will provide an informational update to the Board on this draft technology assessment, along with the draft technology assessments for fuel cell and hybrid heavy-duty vehicles, at the 19 November 2015, Board meeting in Sacramento.