Registrations of BEV and PHEV in the EU from 2010 to 2014. Each column segment corresponds to a specific model. The blue and grey part of the column corresponds to the group “mass production / imports”, while the red part corresponds to the group “small-series / imports and pre-production series”. Source: Thiel et al. Click to enlarge.

According to the team’s analysis, a total of 153,633 electric cars were registered in the EU from 2010 to 2014. Out of this 151,698 were mass-produced or mass-imported cars and 1,935 were small-series, small number imports and pre-production series cars. This breaks down to:

• 86,230 BEV
• 67,300 PHEV and REV
• 103 FCEV

The PHEV/REV group breaks down to:

• 50,869 gasoline PHEV
• 12,613 diesel PHEV
• 3,818 REV (specifically, the BMW i3)

Total BEV (blue column) and PHEV (red column) registrations per segment in the EU from 2010 to 2014. Each column segment corresponds to a specific model. Number corresponds to models offered per segment. Only models of the group “mass production / imports” are shown. With the exception of the E-segment, every segment has at least one BEV or PHEV model, the authors noted. The smallest segments (A and B) only offer BEV, while some of the larger and heavier segments (F and J) only offer PHEV models. This indicates a specialization in terms of optimal powertrain configurations per segment, in line with textbook theory. Source: Thiel et al. Click to enlarge.

The report also emphasizes that market deployment is still dependent on support policies and vulnerable to changes in such support. According to the recommendations, support measures should be based on technology neutral criteria, such as CO₂ and other pollutant emissions, or energy efficiency.

These support measures could be gradually reduced when further cost reduction for electric vehicles or other fuel saving technologies kick in and they become a regular choice option for the mainstream market.

The Netherlands and France have the highest number of electric vehicle registrations in the period 2010-2014, while the Netherlands and Estonia have the largest shares of registered EVs on the passenger car market – between 1% and 2%. This is due to strong financial incentives, which have led to registration peaks. Member States with low or no incentives display low numbers of registrations and EV shares on the market.

While plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are mostly present in the larger car size segment, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are usually smaller size cars. Also, most of the current plug-in hybrid electric vehicle models offered derive from conventional (internal combustion engine propelled) car models. The number of battery electric vehicles models, derived from conventional car models, is increasing. This is an indication for a beginning of their mass commercialisation in the EU, the report said. The number of models offered will continue to grow in the future.

Higher purchase costs for electric vehicles, mainly because of the significant cost of the traction battery, seem to remain an important barrier for a larger uptake. Nevertheless, recent studies indicate that battery costs may decline faster than originally anticipated in literature. This could help to further decrease the cost gap between electric and conventional cars and hence substantiate the further market increase.

As an overall conclusion we can state that indeed the EU seems to currently witness a transition from testing and experimenting with EV towards full scale EV commercialization. Nevertheless, the beginning market deployment is still dependent on support policies and vulnerable to changes in such support. For the coming years it will be important to accompany EV market deployment with carefully designed policy measures that provide certainty and are consistent and coherent across the EU. These can then be gradually reduced when further cost reduction for EV kicks in and EV become a regular choice option for the mainstream market. Support measures should be based on technology neutral criteria, such as CO₂ and other pollutant emissions, or energy efficiency.

—Thiel et al.

Resources

• Christian Thiel, Jette Krause, Panagiota Dilara (2015) “Electric vehicles in the EU from 2010 to 2014 - is full scale commercialisation near?”