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JATO Dynamics: 2016 will be record year for plug-ins with global sales in excess of 700K units; China to begin dominating the market

A new white paper from JATO Dynamics, the UK-based supplier of automotive business intelligence, projects, based on its partner LMC Automotive’s forecasts, that the global market for plug-in vehicles (plug-in hybrid and battery-electric vehicles) will reach record sales in excess of 700,000 units next year thanks to strong growth in China, Europe and the US. This will be followed by strong annual growth, according to the report.

Global electric passenger car sales totalled 280,000 units in 2014, representing growth of 43% compared with 2013; total global passenger car sales that year were 72 million units. The report projects annual EV sales in Europe of 500,000 units by 2019. By 2022, the Chinese market is expected to account for half of global sales—almost 1.5 million units a year. The forecast for 2025 sees more than 5.5 million electric vehicles being sold worldwide.

The main sources of demand will be unchanged, with China (2.9 million, 53%), Europe (1.7 million, 31%) and the US (800,000, 15%) still responsible for the vast majority of sales, according to the report From Fiction To Reality: The Evolution Of Electric Vehicles 2013 - 2015.

JATO1
Expected EV sales volume in 2016, 2019, 2022, 2025. 2015-YTD actual. Source: LMC Automotive, JATO Dynamics. Click to enlarge.

Japan (85,000), South Korea with (35,000) and India (19,000) will lag some distance behind as growth in these markets is expected to be steady rather than explosive.

LMC Automotive also estimates that the biggest winners will be PHEVs, with sales jumping 195% from 2016 to 2019 before reaching 3.3 million units annually by 2025. As a result PHEVs will represent around 60% of combined global sales for PHEVs, BEVs and EREVs. Pure electric (BEV) volumes are predicted to rise from 350,000 units in 2016 to 2.2 million nine years later.

The environmental case has helped the industry to introduce EVs to consumers and give them a foothold in the market. The next step is to make electric cars a mass-market proposition.

The industry, consumers and governments must all play an important role if this goal is to be achieved. Manufacturers must continue to work to develop the technologies that will make the next generation of EVs even more attractive to consumers both in terms of price and capability. Governments and regulators must help to create the conditions that allow EVs to better compete with petrol cars. Consumers must be willing to be patient while the technology evolves and keep an open mind.

The first step has been taken - electric cars are no longer part of science fiction. But the biggest change is still to come – all stakeholders need to work towards a world where electric comes as standard.

—“From Fiction to Reality”

Comments

SJC

This is 40 years after embargoes and 15 years after the first HEV. It took $100 oil to get going, if that is the case then so be it, better late than never.

Mariordo

And 2025 is posee to pass a record 450,000 highway legal light-duty PHEVs, pull by Europe and China, consistent with JATO's projections.

Mariordo

Oops! I mean 2015 not 2025.

HarveyD

Will big oil and ICEVs manufacturers fight back with $20/barrel oil and under 1L ultra light ICEVs getting 60+ mpg?

At the same time, HEVs may do close to 80 mpg and PHEVs may do over 120 mpge?

How will sales of pure BEVs and FCEVs be affected?

electric-car-insider.com

SJC> It took $100 oil to get going.

The price delta between gasoline and electric fuel helped make the case to consumers, but the EV industry exists because of environmental regulation, started by California.

From the white paper:

LMC> The environmental case has helped the industry to introduce EVs to consumers and give them a foothold in the market.

Without the CARB ZEV mandate, only Tesla would be building electrics today.

SJC

15 years after the Prius, HEVs are 3% of sales. 5 years after EVs we have 0.5% of sales. Getting going means something different depending on perspective.

HarveyD

The right to poison the air/atmospere with ICEVs and PHEVs should have a direct proportional price, paid by end users.

This (progressive) new pollution compensation cost could be added to liquid fuels price and/or on yearly registration fees or both.

Electric vehicles (BEVs and FCEVs) could be compensated use much lower registration fees (paid by higher registration fees for ICEVs and PHEVs)

When electrified vehicles (BEVs and FCEVs) reach 50+%, a system of users fees for road usage, based on distance travelled, should be introduced.

Thomas Lankester

@ecic
Whilst important, in a global context I don't think CARB ZEV mandate is wholly responsible. Nissan-Renault alliance took a strategic decision to try to leap-frog Toyota's HEV advantage and looking at sales, I don't think Renault is even in the US market.
http://media.renault.com/global/en-gb/renaultgroup/Media/PressRelease.aspx?mediaid=64911

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