Navigant forecasts annual fuel cell vehicles sales to exceed 228,000 units by 2024
02 December 2015
In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts that the annual sales of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs)—both cars and buses—will exceed 228,000 by 2024.
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While the performance of FCVs makes them ready for commercial launch, the industry is still focused on the two key requirements for larger-scale market introduction, Navigant says:
driving down vehicle costs to be competitive with battery and hybrid vehicle technology; and
developing the hydrogen infrastructure necessary to fuel the vehicles.
Commercial FCVs are finally available to drivers in select markets, with early indications of real customer interest and signs that manufacturers are getting serious about pricing FCVs to compete at the premium-vehicle level. Automakers serious about fuel cell technology are expected to tackle the fueling infrastructure problem head on, with much needed investments in station buildout.
—Lisa Jerram, principal research analyst with Navigant Research
Until the infrastructure is available, the market for FCVs is expected to remain supply-constrained, with vehicle production at low levels, according to the report, titled Fuel Cell Vehicles. To facilitate the creation of FCV infrastructure, automakers are collaborating with new partners in retail fueling and hydrogen supply.
It seems that Asia and EU will take about 80% of the FCEVs market leaving less than 20% for Americas.
Too bad, because I was hoping that FCEVs + low cost local Hydro energy could have been an excellent alternative to current ICEVs in our area.
By the way, Alberta Oil (mostly from Tar Sands) started to partly feed Montreal's remaining refineries at the rate of 300,000+ barrels/day, using an old 9B pipeline, adapted with reversed flow. The St-John NB and Quebec City refineries are using imported Oil from many places.
Posted by: HarveyD | 02 December 2015 at 10:50 AM
It will be interesting to see what the price of H2 is in 2024. If it remains 2x - 3x the cost of gasoline, as it is now, it's likely that sales will tank.
Toyota is rushing to field "mobile refueling stations" at dealerships because - surprise! - Mirai reservation holders are, err, holding off on taking posession of their vehicle because four working retail H2 stations in trhe US doesn't seem to be quite enough.
The mobile refueling stations fill at 5,000 PSI, giving the Mirai a 150 mile range. Subtract the mikes to and from the dealership and you have maybe 110 miles of range without a buffer.
About the same as a 2016 Nissan Leaf, which sells for about 1/2 the price of the Mirai.
I can sympathize with the folks having second thoughts about that deal.
Posted by: electric-car-insider.com | 02 December 2015 at 08:01 PM
The economics of hydrogen are better in other countries than in the US in spite of the higher cost of NG, which also makes renewables for hydrogen more competitive.
Strangely those who are eager to claim that the cost of hydrogen will remain high are willing to hypothesise any amount of cost reduction in batteries.
Posted by: Davemart | 03 December 2015 at 01:58 AM
Davemart
Cars running on CNG does not sell despite having less fuel cost than gassers and dirty diesels. They do not sell because people does not want a car with little cargo space and short range and a 3 to 8k USD extra cost because of these expensive high pressure tanks. That anyone can believe in the success of hydrogen cars that have even more costly fuel and a more costly high pressure tank system and the same problems as CNG cars with little cargo space and short range. That is impossible for me to understand. How can you believe hydrogen cars will ever prevail when CNGs cars that makes more sense does not prevail?
Posted by: Account Deleted | 03 December 2015 at 06:51 AM
FCEVs could make sense in our area with very low commercial rate 24/7 (CAN$0.025/kWh).
Quebec Hydro, the sold producer and distributor of this low cost clean electricity could easily use some of its CAN$4B/year net profits to install large H2 production plants + large distribution reservoirs/stations along the 10 major highways at every 100 Km to 150 Km in the next 5 years or so.
It is just a question of will and policies. The technologies and clean electricity are there.
A CAN$10K to CAN$20K subsidy (paid by an extra 5 cents/L gas tax) for the initial purchase of FCEVs would help to convince people to switch from IVECs to FECVs.
Posted by: HarveyD | 03 December 2015 at 11:59 AM
I dont know what the cost if hydrogen will be in 10 years but with the relatively small number of retail stations currently in the planning stages, the difficulties of permitting due to safety concerns, and the lack of distribution infrastructure (the hydrogen has to be transported by tube trucks) it will not happen without significant technical development.
Battery prices have demonstrated a steady decrease in prices over the past 30 years and the massive investment in new plants and certain demand from CARB and EU emissions regulations all but assure continued progress in cost reductions.
Its a bit like betting on a horse race, with one of the thoroughbreds running the wrong way on the course.
Hydrogen may come down from its current $13.50 - $16.50 kg price point, but it's going to have to do something extraordinary to get there, especially in the face of $30k 200 mile range electrics.
Posted by: electric-car-insider.com | 04 December 2015 at 08:17 AM
It takes about $1 of natural gas to make a kilogram of hydrogen.
Posted by: SJC | 04 December 2015 at 11:21 AM
Yes SJC,
1) H2 produced with low cost USA/Canada NG should not cost anywhere near $13/Kg but closer to $5 to $6/Kg.
2) H2 produced with very low cost clean Hydro electricity (specially off-peak rates) could also match that low cost without the associated GHG and pollution.
Since FCEVs are about 4 times more efficient than equivalent ICEVs, H2 @ $6/Kg would be a real bargain.
Posted by: HarveyD | 04 December 2015 at 04:47 PM
Dream on
Posted by: dursun | 05 December 2015 at 12:45 PM
Care to elaborate?
Posted by: SJC | 05 December 2015 at 02:49 PM