Navigant forecasts global light duty electrified vehicle sales to exceed 6.0M in 2024; PEVs to account for roughly half
In a new report, Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts, Navigant research projects that under its base scenario, global sales of light duty electrified vehicles (i.e., vehicles that use electricity for traction, including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery-electrics) will grow from 2.6 million vehicle sales in 2015 to more than 6.0 million in 2024.
Under a conservative scenario, Navigant forecasts more than 5.8 million electrified vehicles by 2024, while the aggressive scenario sees more than 6.4 million. Navigant estimates that sales of plug-in vehicles (PEVs) accounted for roughly 19% of electrified vehicle sales in 2015; in 2024, Navigant expects light duty PEVs to capture between 47% and 51% of the electrified vehicle market.
The growth of PEV market share will be aided in part by the number and variety of PEV offerings coming to the market over the next several years. It will also be due to the continued drive to reduce carbon emissions and improve vehicle fuel economy in the major developed vehicle markets.—“Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts”
Although conventional light-duty hybrids are facing declining sales in North America and have failed to grow significantly in China, growing interest in Europe and consistent support in Japan will grow the market at a healthy CAGR of around 4.7% through 2024, according to Navigant.
For the report, Navigant evaluated announced automaker electrification strategies; concept vehicles; and regional mandates and regulations that incentivize vehicle electrification to assess what HEV and PEV availability will look like in each country throughout the forecast period on a vehicle-by-vehicle basis. Subsequently, the company used data on electricity and oil prices; government incentives; charging infrastructure; vehicle costs; and other factors to determine the business case of an electrified vehicle (HEV, PHEV, or BEV) purchase against its conventional competitor in each forecast year.
Navigant observes that the market for electrified vehicles has changed significantly over the past five years, but expects that changes during the next 5 years will be even more impactful to the global automotive and energy industries.
In addition to positive factors driving PEV growth (government support through regulations and incentives, automaker product offerings, participation of the power sector), weaknesses to widespread adoption of EV technologies do exist, Navigant said. These include the dive in oil prices that began in mid-2014, as well as the phasing out of some local government purchase incentives.