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Navigant forecasts global light duty electrified vehicle sales to exceed 6.0M in 2024; PEVs to account for roughly half

In a new report, Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts, Navigant research projects that under its base scenario, global sales of light duty electrified vehicles (i.e., vehicles that use electricity for traction, including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery-electrics) will grow from 2.6 million vehicle sales in 2015 to more than 6.0 million in 2024.

Under a conservative scenario, Navigant forecasts more than 5.8 million electrified vehicles by 2024, while the aggressive scenario sees more than 6.4 million. Navigant estimates that sales of plug-in vehicles (PEVs) accounted for roughly 19% of electrified vehicle sales in 2015; in 2024, Navigant expects light duty PEVs to capture between 47% and 51% of the electrified vehicle market.

The growth of PEV market share will be aided in part by the number and variety of PEV offerings coming to the market over the next several years. It will also be due to the continued drive to reduce carbon emissions and improve vehicle fuel economy in the major developed vehicle markets.

—“Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts”

Although conventional light-duty hybrids are facing declining sales in North America and have failed to grow significantly in China, growing interest in Europe and consistent support in Japan will grow the market at a healthy CAGR of around 4.7% through 2024, according to Navigant.

Navigant

For the report, Navigant evaluated announced automaker electrification strategies; concept vehicles; and regional mandates and regulations that incentivize vehicle electrification to assess what HEV and PEV availability will look like in each country throughout the forecast period on a vehicle-by-vehicle basis. Subsequently, the company used data on electricity and oil prices; government incentives; charging infrastructure; vehicle costs; and other factors to determine the business case of an electrified vehicle (HEV, PHEV, or BEV) purchase against its conventional competitor in each forecast year.

Navigant observes that the market for electrified vehicles has changed significantly over the past five years, but expects that changes during the next 5 years will be even more impactful to the global automotive and energy industries.

In addition to positive factors driving PEV growth (government support through regulations and incentives, automaker product offerings, participation of the power sector), weaknesses to widespread adoption of EV technologies do exist, Navigant said. These include the dive in oil prices that began in mid-2014, as well as the phasing out of some local government purchase incentives.

Comments

TM

Seems slow, but geologically speaking, pretty fast. Change isn't a step function. Real life rates of change have ramps in them.

DaveD

Not even close. There will be 250 mile EVs for $25k in that time frame. They'll be more like 10-15% of total sales or more by then.
The current political climate with the Saudis will change as well...gas won't be this low even within a couple of years.

SJC

"..including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery-electrics.."
Electrified is yet another misleading term, only an EV is an EV.
Look at hybrids less than 3% in 15 years, EVs 0.5% in 5 years but some believe it will be 15% in 9 years.

DaveD

SJC, Seriously you dork? "...but some believe it will be 15% in 9 years"
You're so socially inept that you don't even have the common courtesy to address me directly?
Or do you just totally lack balls and can't even speak to others...even on the internet?

I made a statement and based it on some logical reasoning. In addition, VW claims it will sell 25% PHEV or BEV by 2025.

So, what's your brilliant reason for talking down to me? Past performance? Because we all know that is a great predictor of the future. /sarcasm


SJC

DaveD, calm down or get kicked off this site, last warning.

DaveD

LOL get over yourself.

HarveyD

Over 3,000,000 HEVs/year (3% to 3.5% of total yearly sales) by 2020/2022 and about the same number of (PHEVs + BEVs + FCEVs) by 2025/2027 or so is not phenomenal progress, specially for PEVs.

Manufacturers could do better than that if enough incentives are maintained. A total of 10+% or about 10 million/year electrified vehicles sale (excluding e-bikes) should be possible by 2025/2027 or so.

Higher performance and lower price of battery packs and more generous incentives could help to increase sales. The opposite could have negative effects.

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