Navigant forecasts global annual natural gas vehicle sales to reach 3.9M in 2025, up 62.5% from 2015
In its new Natural Gas Vehicles report, Navigant Research forecasts that global annual NGV sales—light-, medium- and heavy-duty—will grow 62.5% from 2.4 million vehicles in 2015 to 3.9 million in 2025.
Navigant forecasts that the number of light-duty NGVs on the world’s roads will double by 2025 to 39.6 million, accounting for 2.6% of all LDVs. Overall, Navigant expects the worldwide market for light-duty NGVs to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3% between 2015 and 2025.
Navigant expects Asia Pacific to remain the largest market, with more than 1.56 million LD NGVs sales in 2025.
Due to the incremental costs of NGVs, limited fueling infrastructure, reduced utility, and progress on competitive electrification technology, Navigant expects only modest LD NGV demand growth in North America. This area will likely remain focused on the fleet markets (such as municipal vehicles), with medium- and heavy-duty gas vehicles—particularly for local applications, including refuse trucks, delivery vehicles, and transit buses that operate out of centralized depots—being the dominant applications.
Navigant expects that with a wider gap between natural and liquid fuel prices and more aggressive incentives, Western Europe and to a lesser degree Asia Pacific, will continue to see NGV growth, but at a lower rate than previous projections.
Various regional factors affect the markets for natural gas vehicles (NGVs), Navigant observes. These include the availability of refueling infrastructure, tightening tailpipe emissions requirements, and total cost of ownership. Increased gas extraction in North America and other regions has helped increase the supply and reduce the cost of natural gas (NG) while additional pipelines for distribution in Asia Pacific and Europe have improved availability.
However, the collapse in global oil prices has eroded a significant portion of the natural gas cost advantage. Additional issues that could hinder growth prospects include ongoing political tensions in Eastern Europe that could affect supply and the prices of gas exports from Russia to Western Europe.
Nevertheless, a number of OEMs are showing steady or increased interest in NGVs in several regions, according to the report. In Europe, Volkswagen is challenging longtime LD NGV leader Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA). In North America, while FCA has the expertise and technology to challenge Ford for leadership in the truck and van NGV markets, any expansion of NGV availability is unlikely in the near- to mid- term because of low fuel prices for gasoline and diesel.
In Asia Pacific, many markets are highly fractured with a number of competitors, although Suzuki remains strong in the key NGV markets of Pakistan and India. Among suppliers, Landi Renzo and Fuel System Solution’s IMPCO and BRC continue to lead the conversion market while Magneti Marelli, Westport, and Bosch are leaders among component suppliers.