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EIA expects gasoline consumption in US to remain below 2007 peak despite increase in travel

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that motor gasoline consumption in the US will remain below the 2007 peak despite an increase in travel. EIA attributes the outcome largely to improvements in light-duty vehicle fuel economy.

Based on estimates in the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), vehicle travel in the United States in 2015 was almost 4% above its 2007 level, but motor gasoline consumption has not exceeded its previous peak in 2007.

Source: US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2016 Click to enlarge.

STEO forecasts motor gasoline consumption to average 9.23 million barrels per day (b/d) in both 2016 and 2017, about 0.6% below its 2007 level. In contrast, vehicle travel is expected to grow to levels 5% and 7% above the 2007 level in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

The projected growth in vehicle travel remains consistent with increases in macroeconomic indicators such as nonfarm employment and real disposable income. EIA expects the combination of an increasing share of the baby-boomer generation reaching retirement and continued increases in vehicle fuel economy to limit growth in motor gasoline consumption for the forecast interval and beyond.



This makes sense. Many new ICEVs are more efficient than their equivalent 2007/2008 models. More are moving in.

Secondly, HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs and FCEVs are starting to contribute to higher total vehicle efficiency and will (eventually) help to lower liquid fuel consumption per mile travelled.

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