Lux Research has launched an “EV Inflection Tracker” which analyzes how compelling automakers’ plug-in offerings (PHEV and BEV) are as a leading indicator of when EVs will be positioned to take over the automotive market. Lux Research defines the “EV Inflection Point” concept as the year range when PEVs make up more than 50% of new car sales.
Lux is particularly looking for BEVs with greater than 200 miles of driving range at a price point of $35,000 or less; such vehicles, they suggest, would result in a significant acceleration of adoption.
Given the lack of any vehicles, let alone a wide variety, that meets these criteria, we’re far from the EV Inflection Point. In fact, in the 2016 edition of the Tracker, we estimate that the EV Inflection Point is in the 2035-2040 time-frame. This corresponds to three full model cycles worth of development and iteration: By then, for example, the Nissan Leaf will be in its fourth generation.—Lux Research