ABI Research forecasts nearly 203 million Software Over-the-Air (SOTA)-enabled cars will ship by 2022. Both SOTA and Firmware Over-the-Air (FOTA) will see a spike, with nearly 180 million new cars supporting SOTA and 22 million FOTA by 2022. Beyond Tesla, car OEMs will primarily focus the next three to five years on SOTA versus the still nascent FOTA upgrade.
The positive changes that OTA can bestow on the car recall process is alone a vital benefit. In the past two years, the recall rate increased to approximately 46% with four major car OEMs setting aside a combined $20 billion in 2015 in warranty reserves. Though not all recalls can be fixed via an OTA update, ABI Research market analysis suggests that close to one-third of last year’s recalls could have been addressed over the air, saving car OEMs at least $6 billion.
A Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, and Ram recall last year addressed a hacking incident with a Jeep, which affected 1.4 million vehicles. To rectify the situation, the OEMs sent USB drives to the identified customers. This method, in place of an OTA update, increased security risk, the plausibility of owner identification, and the inability to ensure that the patch was done and done correctly. Ford and Toyota also faced similar situations through their own recalls.
As the level of vehicle autonomy accelerates, cybersecurity will become increasingly critical. To address cybersecurity risks that stem from software upgrades, ABI Research anticipates the automotive industry will begin to see more mergers and acquisitions over the next two years as car OEMs emphasize the value of software management solutions.
These findings are part of ABI Research’s Automotive Infotainment Service and Automotive Safety and Autonomous Driving Service, which include research reports, market data, insights, and competitive assessments.