Tesla estimated that 15000 people had lined up in front of Tesla’s physical stores. That is crazy for giving Tesla an interest free loan for a car people will or will not get in 2 to 3 years time and that still is largely unspecified. The old auto industry better pay attention. Tesla will need to build more 50Gwh factories if Tesla can deliver this car for 35000 USD at a profit and make them fully autonomous for a global Tesla taxi service starting in 2020.

I think Tesla will be on time with this car as it does not seem to contain any new features not already done in Model S and X. The battery pack may be different though. Tesla will get a brand new battery factory and has an opportunity to redesign that battery from scratch. I think the battery design is essential for making that price possible. With a minimum EPA range of 215 miles I would think the battery starts at 60 kwh. In order for Tesla to reach the entire market they should also design the Model 3 so that a much larger battery pack is possible. For example, a 100 kwh pack for an EPA range of about 350 miles.

This model 3 is better than the 35000 USD BMW 3 series and the Bolt sucks by comparison. I don’t even have a word to describe how bad the also 35000 USD Nissin Leaf is by comparison. However, the Leaf is here now, the Bolt will be here early next year and the Model 3 is a big maybe volume production by 2018.

After seeing the whole event I can see that there is one world first in the Model 3. It will come standard with a windshield that extends from the front and all the way to the back. That is even more than the one made for the Model X that is currently the world's largest windshield. So panoramic roof will be standard on Model 3. Supercharging is also standard but that was expected. Tesla is still the only automaker in the world that makes cars with 120kw superchargers and that has a global supercharger network to support it.

Also I noted that during the Tesla event it was said that toxic gasses from gassers and diesels prematurely kills 55,000 US citizens each year in addition to the 30,000 US citizens that are killed each year in auto accidents. So the auto industry is responsible for 85,000 US deaths per year or about the same number of people that the US lost each year during second world war.

It is time for legislators to get really serious about auto safety and emissions. 85,000 dearths are just creasy. It could be cut to 8000 if the legislation demanded it. With a 35000 USD price for a car that does not cause any premature death due to air pollution and is much safer than any other non-Tesla car on the market maybe we need to start talking about banning registration of new cars with combustion engines for people living in city centers and who has access to a parking space with a charger.

In this video report there is some interesting info on the weight and making of the Model 3. It will be made of a mix of aluminum and steel unlike the Model S that is nearly all aluminum. The exact choice of materials has not yet been finalized. Because of more steel it will not be much less heavy than the Model S despite its smaller footprint. Cabin space is much the same as Model S because of a shorter nose than Model S. It may actually have more space at the back seat (roof height) than Model S. It will have trunks both in the front and the back like model S and offer more trunk space than BMW 3 series.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1103196_tesla-model-3-first-ride-in-sporty-35k-electric-car-prototype

It is not 10% per year. It is more like 4 to 5% per year long term and it is not steady growth but a bumpy one with zero improvement for most years and then 10% in other years where something new is implemented. I am still sceptical about Tesla actually selling at 35,000 USD before tax incentives. I think it will have to be higher than that for the car to be profitable. 35,000 USD will imply that Tesla can make a 60 khw battery plus a 250 hp electric motor and power electronics plus a gear box for the same cost that BMW can make a 250 hp gasser engine with gear and exhaust system. I doubt it. Tesla must make money or they will bankrupt so better take 40,000 USD for that model 3 when it is ready to sell and then say in 2018 that cost has increased since 2016 when it was announced.

People also underestimate how nice it is not to visit gas stations.
Visiting a supercharger on a trip is actually relaxing - you get the needed 30 minute break every 3 hrs, without the guilt of feeling like you are ruining your average mph - because you have to take the 30 or 35 mins, you don't rush through the stop like you (I) would with a gas car.

And for all of those weeks and months you stay in town, you never have to pull into a mini-mart, which for me is a joy.

This is just in. Now the preorders for Model 3 is 180,000 and thousands still coming in every hour. Their signup page is slow you can "feel" the server is overloaded but still holding up.

http://www.theverge.com/2016/4/1/11346916/tesla-model-3-preorder-180000-elon-musk-tweet

At 180,000+ and still going, TESLA 3 may catch up with and/or surpass the Model S sales before 2020?

Extended range AWD 'D' versions will probably go as high as $50K.

Brian I am nearly certain you are wrong about the panoramic windshields. It will come standard on the rear and front but the 2 foot or so in between that is a solid roof will have an optional panoramic window for some extra dollars. Tesla’s designers need that rear windshield to be panoramic in order to increase roof height at the backseat without increasing the height of the car and thereby destroying the aerodynamics needed for long range at highway driving speeds. It also makes a less claustrophobic cabin.

Model 3 looks like a 40,000 USD gasser outside and inside whereas the Bolt looks like a 20,000 USD gasser outside and inside. You might have a point about a hatch that makes the rear trunk more accessible in the Bolt but that to most people is a small point. The model 3 looks better, it is faster, it probably has more trunk space and it has super charging at 120k watt and a network to support it. Its standard autopilot safety features are certainly much safer than the Bolt’s safety features that also cannot be upgraded to a full autopilot. I bet the Model 3 will also have an upgradable battery pack like the Model S and X. All of that stuff is missing in the Bolt. Nor will all of the Bolts systems be OTA upgradable like they are in all of Tesla’s cars.

Well, they are on track to have one of the best selling vehicles in the world today.... Assuming everyone that reserved is buying.

Kudos, but it really would be cool if tesla would have all those cars sold in the same model year, like wait till October and just sell them as 2019s and get as many out as possible.

I can't wait to get a used one in a few years.

This reminds me of iPhone sales... It is a very good thing for EVs, people waiting in line.

I can't afford one, I don't think they are where I want them to be yet. But I think when they price themselves at or below the average cost of a new car they are getting where they need to be.

I hope everyone who reserves one buys one. At 200k units Tesla can sail on smoothly.

My pros about the car that would make me strongly think about it. 0-60, the look, seats 5, no maint. Autopilot
Cons range, a sunroof that may not be glass...(glass is nice because it filters UV light and it quite durable against scratches and breaks especially curved glass.)

I think if I were to get a vehicle like what we know about the Tesla 3 today, it'd have to be priced at ~$17000, so I'd have to get it used. I payed 8900, for my 2014 fiesta in 2015.

The autopilot feature is one of the most attractive feature for me.

Some other things that aren't are if I were to buy this and it needed service, where would I go?

I am also surprised that tesla still has the crown as electric supercar, I know that normal production changes take about 2+ years to ramp up to production, and things like batteries and other possible safety and drive train things take closer to 5-10years to get out the door, but I'm still surprised a direct competitor isn't on the road. Battery vehicles, if done right can be much simpler to make than ices and thus quicker to market. Though having said that, I think that automakers would have to make new platforms to directly market something like that, and that's something not done lightly.

Well, Tesla has lots of influence, whether or not that is of long term worth has yet to be seen.

Those old dinosaurs employ 25% of the US directly and indirectly. A paradigm shift is kind of big.

Tesla good at marketing, and providing a good user experience. They don't have the assets, nor the clout that they need to get things to market on schedule and in numbers as promised, if the launch of the three doesn't go smoothly it could be a disaster and the end of Tesla.

Chevy can fail miserably at the Bolt and still be around. VW has failed all over the globe and is being sued like mad, they ll be here.

I know how the system works from the inside, Tesla is an exception, but it's hard to say long term.

200k is a lot of volume for your fourth or so model. Scaling will be the largest challenge for musk.

My wager is when BEVs are more marketable the dinosaurs will sell them. Two person shuttles are also a bit of a stretch in my mind.

Brian Tesla uses a glass that darkens when the sun is bright and become fully transparent when it is dark. Same stuff you can get for glasses. In Model X you can also pull some physical sun blockers that reside at the left and right side of the roof. I am sure something similar will be made for the back seats in Model 3. They need to do it in a genius manner in order not to change the roof height. Electronic glass exists that can be blocked by the push of a bottom or a spoken command. That may cost extra to get. A lees expensive option could be to roll out a sun blocking sheet from the rear that could be fastened to the roof by some magnetic stuff like an iPad cover attachment. Glass is heavy. Or it used to be. Thanks to inventions in synthetic glass covers for smart phones that glass is getting stronger and thinner and less heavy every year. We are at Gorilla glass 4 now and it keeps evolving. For safety reasons I am sure the rear glass will also be laminated as the front glass is. You can’t have that much glass braking and flying around at high speeds in a hard crash. It is laminated of cause.

I also noted that the Model 3 is novel in not having a front grill and an instrument cluster. That is cost saving and not needed at all in an electric car. I still think the final version of the model 3 will get a second screen build into the steering wheel showing speed, directions and battery range. Otherwise the instrument cluster is gone for good in Tesla’s coming cars. It will make the cost of producing right and left driver seat versions of Tesla’s cars minimal and Tesla will be able to launch both versions simultaneously and globally when a new car is made.

I am still a bit shocked about the 35,000 USD price level for the model 3. It is half the price of Model S and Model 3 is not half as good as Model S 70. It is nearly as good. Hopefully, the reveal of model 3 will not start to cannibalize the sales of Model S. I don’t think it will because the number of preorders is now so high that even if you preorder a model 3 today you will not get it until sometime in 2019. Many simply can’t wait that long. Also the Model X is a much larger car than Model 3 so that car at least should not be cannibalized in any way by model 3. However, the expectations for model 3 will diminish sales of Nissan Leaf and the Bolt. The only truly good selling point of the Bolt is that it is available 12 to 18 months before the deliveries of model 3 start and probable 3 years before a new reservation for model 3 can be delivered. So the Bolt will sell and also because it is a much better deal than the Leaf and e-Golf etc on the market.

You are imagining a screen ON the steering wheel itself?

Airbag ...

And if you stuff the airbag behind that screen, now you have a hard object potentially with broken sharp edges being flung directly at the driver's face in the event of an airbag deployment.

They're not going to do that. Won't happen.