I see this, coupled with the 200k pre-orders as a problem for the model 3.

It's not that they could help the problem, its just that all the existing OEMs from before Tesla's existence have a long history with suppliers around the world. They can get great results from different plants across the world, Tesla doesn't have that clout yet.

Hopefully the Pre-Orders give more confidence to vendors/Tier 1 suppliers. But if Tesla can't order now what they need for those 200K cars, they'd likely run late on deliveries. Most of everything in production now started over 18months ago... this is why I think Tesla may run into issues.

Nick I agree. Musk has already admitted that being too ambitious with version 1 is a liability and he has learned it the hard way with Model X that has taken longer to launch and ramp up than necessary if they had been less ambitious with version 1. The reveal of Model 3 shows it is not too difficult to make. There is nothing that Tesla has not done before or that is not straightforward to make. The large windshield at the back is new for a back windshield but not more difficult to make than the large front windshield for Model X. They probably use the same supplier. If it is a small manufacturer that can’t ramp up at the speed required for model 3 Tesla has time to make a deal and buy that supplier and provide it with the capital needed for a new factory that can handle Model 3 volume. Tesla did that with their seat manufacturer and their aluminum die supplier. There are no falcon doors for this version. A Model Y (crossover version of model 3) with falcon doors is rumored to be next after model 3. Also I am sure now that model 3 will get a transparent OLED screen in front of the driver’s seat that will replace the traditional instrument cluster that was absent in the Model 3 presentation. However, that is not hard either and LG will make it I think so there will not be any supply issues on that part.

I take note that Model X is now 2400 unit in Q1 up from just 500 in Q4. Also very important that Tesla say they did 750 Model X in the last week of March. That could point to 8000 to 9000 model x deliveries for Q2. They have at least 40k preorder for model x so it is extremely important to get that production up in gear. Model S and Model X will be making most of the money (as gross profits) that are needed to finish production lines for Model 3 which will cost 10 billion at least for an annual capacity of 350k units.

Davemart it must be such a pity to be you. All that envy.

Motor trend has a review of Model X. Their biggest complaint is that “that Elon’s ego has cost the world a year and a half of pleasure living with what could possibly be the best people-mover extant”.

And another quote is “No discussion of Tesla’s in-car tech is complete without mentioning Autopilot, which is a full decade ahead of most other semi-autonomous driver’s aids. If not two decades.” That is of cause a metaphoric exaggeration to make the point to other car makers to get their act together and step it up in this field.

They do say this about Model x’s looks “Speaking of style, there’s little nice to say about the way the Model X looks. Its details are inoffensive—the headlights and taillights, for example—but it has the proportions of a pregnant hippo. This electric vehicle is certainly a slave to aerodynamics, and its drag coefficient is, Tesla claims, just 0.24, which is 20 percent better than the next-best SUV.” That Cd is the same as the new Prius which is offensively ugly. I agree the Volvo 90X is a much better looking SUV but I will take that pregnant hippo at any time to get all the other stuff that Model X offers in excess of 90X. After all looks matters so little for a healthy long-term relationship.

http://www.motortrend.com/news/2016-tesla-model-x-p90d-ludicrous-first-test-review/

Yoatmon Yes I forgot that. Sorry ;-)

Musk should have broken the model 3 up in to different groups of preorders. 2,500 for a 2018/19 model, and 100,000 for a 2020, then so on after that. So people had a real idea of what might be expected. Though I understand the launching in waves/markets idea. I just hope people don't loose interest.

Teslas best bet to make some stable money is to sell their extra battery making capacity to other oems. Odds are battery production will ramp up faster than will suppliers for the model three.

My biggest hope of all is that all of the model three is in preproduction at the suppliers, that the molds and processes are finalized, and each part is as it will be on the final car. I mean technically they could build 3/4 of a car and finalize it in Q3 and rush a huge volume out the door when the launch happens even if they cannot sustain the numbers for long.

CE88 preorders for model s is zero was done years ago. Preorders for model x is 40k to 50k and for model 3 most likely 300k by now. Musk with tweet an updated number on Wednesday. Tesla is a build to order company. They don’t produce any cars that has not already been configured and paid for using the Tesla webconfigurator. Musks plan has always been to reach 500k units delivered for 2020 across all models. Expect at least 300k of the model 3 for that year. That will still not be enough to meet all the preorders especially if they reach a million after the final reveal hopefully by late 2017. The think is that Tesla with model 3 has made a car that millions of people can afford and they also want it because it is the best car in the market in that price segment of that category. Of cause if you want an SUV or a truck and you can spend no more than 35k USD it is not going to be that Model 3.

The more preorders Tesla get the easier it is to get the money they need to build the necessary factories.

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Davemart I have nothing against hydrogen, fuel cells or electrolysers. I think they might have an important role to play as a future aviation and shipping fuel and for storing the intermittent energy of wind and solar. However, I see no future for that stuff in land transportation and I simply don’t get why others can’t see it is hopeless in the light of the much better alternative which is self-driving BEVs of all sorts. The progress that Tesla has demonstrated by Model 3 in terms of price possible for BEVs just proves the point. Hydrogen is already obsolete for vehicle use and it will become clearer for each new car that Tesla makes or improves.

But they do build to order. The suppliers love Tesla because they grow at over 50% per year and its is prestigious to be a Tesla supplier. It spurs orders from other customers. Tesla can also keep some stock of suppliers parts but it ain't much. Tesla make 20 changes to their cars per week so they do not want to keep much stock of anything. Model 3 is not finished. They lack lots of stuff that will be finished in the last months before launch. Usually Tesla only give its suppliers a lead time of 3 months to ramp up. That was apparently not enough for some of Model X's suppliers 6 out of 8000 items has been in short supply and delayed ramp up of model X.