NSC: US motor vehicle fatalities up 9% in 1H 2016; trending toward deadliest driving year since 2007
26 August 2016
Preliminary estimates from the National Safety Council (NSC) indicate motor vehicle deaths were 9% higher through the first six months of 2016 than in 2015, and 18% higher than two years ago at the six month mark. An estimated 19,100 people have been killed on US roads since January, and 2.2 million were seriously injured. The total estimated cost of these deaths and injuries is $205 billion.
The upward trend began in late 2014 and shows no signs of decreasing. Last winter, the National Safety Council issued its largest year-over-year percentage increase in 50 years, when it estimated fatalities had jumped 8% in 2015 compared to 2014. The continued rise in fatalities is prompting the Council to issue its highest fatality estimate for the Labor Day holiday period since 2008. NSC estimates 438 people will be killed during the three-day holiday weekend.
States that have been particularly hard hit since 2014, the start of the upward trend, are Florida (43% increase), Georgia (34%), Indiana (33%), California (31%), North Carolina (26%), Illinois (24%) and Kentucky (24%).
While many factors likely contributed to the fatality increase, a stronger economy and lower unemployment rates are at the core of the trend, the NSC said. Average gas prices for the first six months of this year were 16% lower than 2015 levels, helping to fuel a 3.3% increase in the number of miles driven.
The 2007 peak accident and car sale year was followed by the 2008/2009 major crash.
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Posted by: HarveyD | 26 August 2016 at 11:35 AM
Comparing 2016 and 2015 to 2014 to 2008 years is misleading because they were RECESSION YEARS!
The increase is economic. The recession years depressed driving, in particular DUI, younger drivers, and less discretionary (travel) driving.
The last boom year (not counting 2015), was 2007, where then we drove a record number of miles.
http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx
In the 2007 US deaths were 41,259 which was at the time the biggest driving year till 2015.
2015 deaths are LOWER! And if the 19,100 6 months number, will be lower than 2007 despite even more miles driven than 2015 in 2016.
It is really important to NOT compare 2016 or 2015 to the recession years as any comparison to 2008 to 2014 numbers SKEW the results due the recession affecting the numbers.
Here are 2006 thur 2014.
http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx
2006 US Death rate per mile 1.42 Total Deaths 42,708 Miles Driven 3.014 Trillion (3,014 VMT Billion)
2007 US Death rate per mile 1.36 Total Deaths 41,259 Miles Driven 3.031 Trillion
Recession Begins
2008 US Death rate per mile 1.26 Total deaths 37,423. Miles Driven 2.977 Trillion (2,977 VMT Billion)
Full year of recession
2009 US Death rate per mile 1.15 Total deaths 33,883. Miles Driven 2.957 Trillion
2010 US Death rate per mile 1.11 Total deaths 32,999. Miles Driven 2.967 Trillion
2011 US Death rate per mile 1.10 Total deaths 32,479. Miles Driven 2.950 Trillion
2012 US Death rate per mile 1.14 Total deaths 33,782. Miles Driven 2.969 Trillion
2013 US Death rate per mile 1.10 Total deaths 32,894. Miles Driven 2,988 Trillion
Starting to leave Recession
2014 US Death rate per mile 1.08 Total deaths 32,675. Miles Driven 3.026 Trillion (3,026 VMT Billion)
Also note that a lot of the deaths in places like AL had a high percentage of people NOT WEARING seat belts too. Couple that with more miles, more likely DUI and younger drivers, that is why it is higher also than the recession years.
Also it would be helpful if NSC would also use the DEATH RATE per mile as it takes into account the miles driven too. 2015 was 1.12, thought higher than 2014 and 2013, was lower than 2012.
Again we are dealing with an economic increase and the effects of that. When the next recession hits, and DUI, younger drivers, and discretionary driving drops so will the deaths.
Posted by: Stephen Donaldson | 26 August 2016 at 01:08 PM
@Stephen, well said.
We had the same in Ireland when road deaths plummeted due to a recession in 2009-2014 but they are picking up again (+15% for the first 6 months of 2016).
IMO, this is due to the return of the building trade where you have increasing numbers of young lads in cars with lots of money and testosterone and little experience.
But it is probably just broader economic growth.
Posted by: mahonj | 27 August 2016 at 02:40 AM
Just in case anyone is interested,
here are road death stats for Ireland 1961 - 2013 (in 2 tables)
You can see a build up in the '60s as more and more people start driving, then carnage in the '70s and '80s, then a plateau from the mid '90's to 2008, then a fall (due to the recession) and the start of an increase, but from a very low level.
During the 00's, they got serious about speeding, seat belts and alcohol and built some motorways and implemented a car safety test program, hence the fall. (And cars continued to get better).
http://www.garda.ie/Controller.aspx?Page=10717&Lang=1
http://www.garda.ie/Documents/User/Fatalities%202008-2013.pdf
Posted by: mahonj | 27 August 2016 at 03:01 AM
Too bad that the arrival of ADVs will negate car accidents as measuring tool for the next Wall Street Crash.
However, car sales and accidents in 2016 are/will be clear indicators that Wall Street will dive in 2017/2018. USA's national debt will go well over $20 T and personal debts are out of control. The DEBT bubble will burst in 2017/2018.
Posted by: HarveyD | 27 August 2016 at 07:47 AM