FCA unveils Chrysler Portal concept: next-gen family transportation for Millenials; electric, semi-autonomous, connected, flexible
Faraday Future unveils its first production car, the electric FF91

Tesla 2016 deliveries totalled ~76,230, slightly below target

Tesla delivered approximately 22,200 vehicles in Q4, of which 12,700 were Model S and 9,500 were Model X. When added to the rest of the year, total 2016 deliveries were approximately 76,230. Tesla only counts a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct.

Tesla produced 24,882 vehicles in Q4, resulting in total 2016 production of 83,922 vehicles. This was an increase of 64% from 2015.

Because of short-term production challenges starting at the end of October and lasting through early December from the transition to new Autopilot hardware, Q4 vehicle production was weighted more heavily towards the end of the quarter than we had originally planned, Tesla said.

The company recovered and hit its production goal, but the delay in production resulted in challenges that impacted quarterly deliveries, including, among other things, cars missing shipping cutoffs for Europe and Asia. The company said that although it tried to recover these deliveries and expedite others by the end of the quarter, time ran out before it could deliver all customer cars.

In total, about 2,750 vehicles missed being counted as deliveries in Q4 either due to last-minute delays in transport or because the customer was unable to physically take delivery. Even where these customers had already fully paid for their vehicle, Tesla still did not count these as deliveries in Q4.

In addition to Q4 deliveries, about 6,450 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q1 2017.

Vehicle demand in Q4 was particularly strong, the company said. Q4 net orders for Model S and X, which set an all-time record for the company, were 52% higher than Q4 2015 and 24% higher than our previous record quarter in Q3 2016.

Comments

Robin

Tesla has trouble delivering less than 100 000 cars in 2016 and promised to produce 300 000 in 2017 when Model 3 was announced. Find the mistake.

Robin

Oh sorry they 1/2 million actually.

Account Deleted

Tesla aims for 500,000 in 2018 and 1 million cars in 2020. It is probably meant as the monthly rate at the end of the year. So 40,000 cars during dec 2018 and 83,000 cars during dec 2020. If Tesla can make enough batteries at the Giga fab and they succeed in making their cars fully self driving during 2018 (which will guarantee an abundance of demand and high profit margins) it can be done.

Tesla’s market impact will be much larger than the number of cars they make as each self-driving Tesla car will travel about 100,000 miles per year and not just the normal 15,000 miles per year for a non-self driving car. However, the more you drive them the faster they brake and wear out. So Tesla will have to focus on durability so that 1 million miles of life is possible for a Tesla. That would be 5 times as long as a gasser and the true market impact of making one Tesla will therefore be to replace 5 gasser vehicles.

It will be very interesting to see if Tesla can start delivering the model 3 in the second half of 2017 as they plan to do. Even more interesting to see how fast Tesla can make their current cars fully autonomous with upcoming software updates. I expect Tesla to deliver about 125,000 cars in 2017. Nearly all of them Model S and X and hopefully 15k Model 3. Model S and X will get a battery upgrade option for 100kwh and 110kwh packs (with new cells from the Giga fab) during 2017 but I do not expect they will not get any other hardware upgrades. So a relatively uneventful year at Tesla’s production line for Model S and X. Maybe we will hear more about the battery options for Model S and X at Tesla’s investor meeting at the Giga fab today.

JMartin

Tesla may be hugely successful as a company, or they may be a footnote in history 30 years from now. But either way, they have already had a huge impact on the auto industry. Look at the competitors entering the market, and the battery developments since Tesla introduced its first vehicle.

Robin

I agree with JMartin and I hope they will be successful but I am affraid they will not be able to reach their production and delivery target and this will precipitate their fall. Now that they want to compete with regular automotive industry, their new customers won't forgive them so easily. Moreover they will have to achieve high quality target in order to avoid recall.

Account Deleted

I was more worried a few years back that Tesla would not make it. They were very small and risked to be blown out of the market by a large automaker investing billions of USD to make a better Model S like car that was produced at higher volume at lower cost. That did not happen and now it is too late to blow Tesla out of the market because Tesla is now the world’s largest BEV manufacture by a large margin in terms of kwh used. Tesla is so large already that it is going to be very difficult for any global automaker to source enough batteries to become as large as Tesla. Volume is all important in the auto industry because it determines the cost potential.

Tesla will be able to increase their production rate to about 1 million pro anno by dec 2020. They have the factory space for it and they will have the demand and capital for this expansion when they succeed to make the world’s first fully autonomous car software by the end of this year or perhaps a few months later. They will have zero competition on the self-driving ability of their cars until at least 2019 and maybe not any competition before 2021. This is plenty of time for Tesla to grow too large for any of the old automakers to become a serious competitive thread to Tesla’s viability.

Today I worry more about many of the old automakers ability to survive. Many of them will bankrupt because they are too late with self-driving cars and BEVs. When the cars become self-driving and battery electric we will only need to make 20% of the cars we make today because they last 5 times longer than gassers. That will bankrupt a lot of old automakers before 2025.

HarveyD

Much lower cost ICEVs and HEVs will be good sellers for many more years, at least until BEVs and FCEVs can better match prices for equivalent performances. The majority do not care enough about pollution.

Most if not all current ICEV makers can make BEVs and FCEVs using mass produced batteries and FCs from outside suppliers.

ADVs will move to most vehicles by 2020/2025. The late starters may be safer and benefit from early mistakes?

Account Deleted

Harvey gassers and oil burners will get more expensive in the future because of environmental regulation. Only BEVs are getting less costly. They will become the least costly vehicles in the market per mile traveled as soon as they get operated as driverless taxies doing 100k miles per year thus taking full advantage of their 5 times longer durability, lower maintenance cost and lower fuel costs than gassers. New gasser production will be banned in many countries after 2025/30. They are simply too harmful and there will be less costly BEV alternatives available in volume by then so they should be banned.

HarveyD

Banning polluting ICEVs is not for tomorrow.

Second hand ICEVs will be very cheap as more and more people move to BEVs/FCEVs. That will promote extended use of cheap ICEVs for many years.

Short of banning the use of ICEVs you could make it more costly to operate with progressive heavier fuel and registration taxes but that is not in the wind for USA for the next 4/8 years.

electric-car-insider.com

I agree with Change, price curve for ICE goes up, EV price curve goes down, probably below ICE by 2025. Add lower cost to operate - the delta will only get better as gas prices rise - and EVs gain decisive competitive advantage (add NVH and performance advantages and it's over for for ICEs).

I just drive a Lexus RX350 for a couple of days and it was a real step down from my EV. I say that as a former Toyota owner and fan. There's really no going back after you drive a good EV.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Your Information

(Name is required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)