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Lux Research forecasts global biofuels output to rise to 67B GPY in 2022; advanced biofuels will nearly double to 9.6B GPY

New biofuel technology is finally starting to push aside traditional biofuels such as first-generation biodiesel, according to a new report by Lux Research. New facilities based on non-food feedstocks and producing novel fuels account for over half of new capacity deployment for the first time in the biofuel industry’s history, according to Lux. However, overall output will grow at a slower pace to 67 billion gallons a year (BGY) in 2022, from 59 BGY in 2016.

The report, titled “Biofuels Outlook 2022: The Dawn of a New Era in Global Biofuel Capacity Expansion,” is part of the Lux Research Alternative Fuels Intelligence service. Lux Research analysts quantified the commercial deployment of new technologies in the global biofuels industry using a database of nearly 2,000 facilities from 1,461 companies in 90 countries with nameplate capacity data through 2022. Among their findings:

  • Growth slows but advanced biofuels rise. The global biofuels industry will grow at a slower 2.2% annual rate to 67 BGY of nameplate capacity by 2022. First-generation biofuels, which hold a 91.5% market share, will continue to dominate but will lose nearly 6% of market share, as advanced biofuels see rapid growth, nearly doubling capacity to 9.6 BGY.>

  • Biodiesel begins to fade. Second-generation biodiesel makes up 65% of the 5.0 BGY advanced biofuel market today, but is projected to lose 26% market share by 2022 due to the rapid growth of low-carbon and high-performance drop-in biofuels such as renewable diesel.

  • Thermochemical and catalytic processes usher in new era. Emerging thermochemical and catalytic technologies will surpass bioconversion processes to make up over half of the new capacity deployment for the first time in the biofuel industry’s history.

  • A new era of technology commercialization has brought the global biofuels industry to the cusp of a tipping point, as new facilities target low-carbon and high-performance drop-in biofuels. With many of the technologies capable of producing advanced biofuels still at demonstration scale, the next five years will be critical as companies raise capital, establish value chain security and produce commercial volumes as these projects come online.

    —Runeel Daliah, Lux Research Associate and lead author



HPR diesel can run 100% in most diesels. I figured bio, bio synthetic and synthetic would gain over the years.


Why not invent a new fuel that increase the pressure magnetically intead of fuel that just realease btu with the associated high cost and pollution. They are cavemans folks. Stop spending toward cable tv, internet connections and new cars. Buy used and maintain it the longest possible.

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Not much news here. It is expected that hydro treatment process will gain. They might be off on fermentation volumes. A lot of promising technology in the pipeline to improve cost, production, etc. But, given that, we have little demand for more fuel, there might not be any priority. Diesel fuel is the exception given the base load of military and aircraft equipment. Also, regs tend to push diesel fuel per MPG only ratings. You notice grid power is often assumed to be wind or hydro? They don't rate plug ins or battery cars per common coal power plant energy. They just forget about nuclear power. Much of the grid power suffers less than 30% efficiency and it's all down hill from there, yet magically the battery car is almost 100% efficient. What gives?


The MPGe does not consider the inefficiency in electric generation. There are natural gas steam turbines converted from fuel oil that are about 30%, there are peak turbines that are less. It is a Want to Believe wave that ignores the facts.

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