ICCT calculates consumer benefits of increased efficiency in 2025-2030 light-duty vehicles in the US
23 June 2017
A new report from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) estimates Consumer benefits of increased efficiency in 2025-2030 light-duty vehicles in the US.
According to the analysis, under current standards, buyers of model year 2025 vehicles would fully recoup the extra cost for technology in the vehicle in the third year of ownership under a cash-purchase scenario. Those who finance their vehicles will see a net positive cash flow—again, specific to the additional cost of technology—starting immediately. Consumer benefits would be more than 3 times the costs of the standards. Fuel savings are 2.4 times the costs if fuel prices stay low for the next several decades.
The ICCT analysts applied the technology cost results from the March 2017 ICCT report Efficiency technology and cost assessment for US 2025–2030 light-duty vehicles to a consumer-impact analysis.
The report estimates the direct fuel-saving benefits to buyers of model year 2025 and 2030 vehicles under four sets of targets:
The adopted 2025 targets against a baseline of 2021 targets, as reflected in the most recent assessment by EPA.
4%, 5%, and 6% compounded annual reductions in CO2 targets for cars and light trucks for 2026–2030, compared against vehicles that meet the adopted 2025 targets.
The authors evaluated each of these sets of targets according to three measures of consumer benefits: payback period; lifetime fuel savings; and consumer benefit-to-cost ratio.
Consumer benefits were also evaluated under low, reference, and high fuel prices. The report did not assess the non-consumer benefits of adopted 2025 standards—e.g., greenhouse gas emission mitigation, energy security, and health benefits.
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| Cost of vehicle technology, vehicle taxes, insurance, maintenance, and fuel for the sales-weighted average model year 2025 vehicle by year of ownership. These results are shown assuming a 3% discount rate, AEO Reference fuel prices, and cash purchase. The figure includes results for model year 2025 vehicles from US EPA’s Proposed Determination analysis, along with ICCT updated technology assumptions. Source: The ICCT. Click to enlarge. |
The analysis found that consumer benefits are available across vehicle types, from cars to light trucks.
The average new car fuel economy label would increase from 35 mpg in 2021 to 41 mpg in 2025 under the adopted standards, and to 52 mpg in 2030 assuming improvements of 5%/year—each of these steps would save consumers $2,300–$2,600 in fuel costs over the lifetime of the vehicle. For trucks, the average fuel economy would increase from 25 mpg in 2021, to 30 mpg in 2025, to 38 mpg in 2030—each step would save consumers $3,900–$4,000 in fuel costs per vehicle.
A very good return on investment. Not that expensive either. So, I read the Chevy Bolt extra cost can't be justified by fuel savings. The light vehicle market will make incremental (5% compound) improvements upon the most cost effective technology. It appears battery car is not that economical, but mild hybrid technology is. Cars will get lighter, more aerodynamic,expensive, more reliable, with less maintenance. The ICE still maintains its dominance and that is a good thing, given the engine is providing a better solution. We would be less off if Environmentalist got their way and utilized government fiat to rule over the economy. That somehow these people have better thinking skills? The same can be said of all simplistic solutions, even the wind, solar, coal, nuclear, hydro and the rest ratings per environment.
Given the light trucks will benefit the most as they are consuming more fuel. A Prius MPG improvement will mean little. Cheaper batteries will improve efficiencies, computer technology will improve/power efficiencies, and better fuel will improve carbon efficiency.
Reading this post would not instill confidence within investing in oil futures. I've already read the fleet efficiency of vehicles is a factor upon oil supply. We already have known reserves of petrol that will more than supply markets for decades. Yes, more vehicles on the planet, but the fuel consumption of petrol may still slide given the improvements. Light duty battery car will have a place and will gain in popularity for sure. Breathing down the necks of coal and petrol supply market future is the hydrogen fuel cell and the massive capability of solar energy to power it. Japan is harvesting sea bed methane crystals and the potential for that energy supply may be enormous. I think everyone by know must feel confident that the world will not run out of energy. Remember those doomsday authors that claimed society will crash.
Posted by: Trees | 23 June 2017 at 03:25 AM