This chart shows growth of EVs as being almost linear, despite the present growth being exponential and increasing. It also has no mention of the fact that one little global event can dramatically increase the price of oil overnight, and that gasoline stations already run at very low margins and will forl as plugins increase, making it increasingly difficult to own an ICE vehicle.

Norway is an exception...i.e. a country with plenty of oil and gas... and the highest usage of electrified vehicles.

USA and Canada, and many other countries with a good supply of low cost oil and gas, will or may not switch over as fast or much before 2050-2060?

Much better, lower cost batteries (800 to 1,000 Wh/Kg at well under $100/kWh) and improved FCs + electrolyzers; and H2 at under $3/Kg may provoke an acceleration, by 2030 or so.

More climate changes are required to convince the majority to do away with fossil fuel burning.

Things can switch pretty quickly if there is a good enough push. In Ireland and the UK, we switched to diesel (70% new cars) because it was cheaper, give better MPG and Co2 and higher resale values. Obviously, we got it wrong wrt "local" pollution, but it shows what a push can do.
Switching to electric is not as simple as switching to diesel due to the range and time of charging, but it could happen.

There is nothing inherently good about EVs, they just have lower CO2 and pollution, and if you could achieve that in some other way, it would be just as good.
PHEV or some hybrid mix might be nearly as good.

The problem is to get people to switch when oil is so cheap.
if you look at Europe, where there is a lot of tax, very few people use hybrids. Hopefully the demise of diesel will cure this.

Also, even if Norway eschews HC fuels, they will just sell their oil at a slightly lower price to someone else who will burn it.

I agree with E-P. I think the 48V systems are going to be a Trojan Horse and enable gradually increasing electrification as it makes sense. And along the way, the ICE will get completely new tuning and modes of operation, such as burn-and-coast. When integrated with topographic maps and intelligence (oh, it's 5:30, and we're going the same direction as usual Mon-Fri, so program the ECU to minimize gasoline consumption for that particular route, taking into account on-line traffic information).

I can't wait for cars to skip 1st gear entirely, because I loathe the sound they make in that gear. They rev too fast with no load, which makes for a very straining sound. Not like an engine under full power in 3rd or 4th gear, which is a quite pleasing sound - if you're into that sort of thing.

There are loads of expensive equipment to potentially shed, when there's an e-motor to take care of all the challenging load modes. Variable valve timing, cylinder cut-off, variable turbine geometry, turbo chargers, etc.

The Toyota hybrid system is complicated because their battery is too small. Ideally, there would be an e-motor with sufficient power and battery capacity to handle all driving in all but the highest gear. The ICE would only kick in from 40-50 mph or more. An ICE tuned for optimum efficiency at a narrow operating window (65-75 mph).

The current PHEVs are mostly overly complicated, using highly advanced (expensive) stock engines. Once customers and car makers start to 'trust' the electrical components, they should be more inclined to simplify the ICEs again.

And with that, gasoline cars could easily slash their effective gas consumption by a very large percentage - enough to make it less important whether BEVs take over entirely.

We are trying to find the right time and the best way to exchange our three (3) excellent 45 mpg Toyota HEVs with improved 55+ mpg HEVs or 100+ mpge FCEVs and or a the best mix of both.

The availability and non-availability of charging units and H2 stations will have to be fully considered.

The new (2018) Toyota Camry 55+ mpg Hybrid (and other similar HEVs) will be on the short list.

When we discuss the Norway case and the implication for electric car penetration, we always leave out one very important word. I’ll illustrate.

Here’s the usual story:
(1) Norway aggressively supports plug-in vehicles. The buyer pays considerably lower purchase tax (amounting to nearly the price of the vehicle in some cases), permits special lane privileges, forgives/eliminates city entry and road tolls, provides free parking, and heavily subsidizes charging at residences and workplaces. Norway has the highest price for petrol and diesel, greatly encouraging the use of stored electrochemical energy for personal transport. This is bolstered by enormous renewable energy supplies (hydroelectric). As a collateral influence, Norway’s excellent public transport system eases the pressure a driver may perceive about range, allowing a simple and affordable alternative if range is perceived to be limiting for some drives. Finally, Norway is both wealthy (with a sovereign “rainy day” trust of over US$1M per citizen) and characterized by a very “green” cultural consciousness.
(2) Norway’s market share of new LDV’s by Plug-Ins is 25%.

Have you figured it out? Hint: the word is missing from (2).

OK, here you go: the missing word is ONLY: Norway’s market share of new LDV’s by Plug-Ins is ONLY 25%.

If the story for Plug-Ins is so compelling AND it has the most verdant opportunity possible, why isn’t it 50% or more? And how will the rest of the world even come close? (Note: before you have a cow, please know I’ve been a Plug-In driver since 2013.)

Herman, do Norway's subsidies include PHEVs?  Given my experience, I find it hard to believe that market share in the relevant segments would not push 100%.  If you could buy an EcoBoost Fusion and pay 100% tax on it, versus a Fusion Energi and pay 0% tax on it, you'd expect almost 100% of Fusions sold to be Energi models.

The limited offerings of PHEVs in other segments (like minivans and luxury cars) might explain why penetration is only 25%.  An untaxed Tesla is still going to cost several times as much as a 100%-taxed Yaris.

The experience is already started in japan since last fall where the gasoline serial hybrid nissan note e-power have gotten instant sales leadership beating the prius on cost and mpg and driving pleasure. It can be improved with a plug-in version with solar roof.