JATO Dynamics’ latest findings on the impact of WLTP on the automotive market indicate that re-homologation to the WLTP test cycle is having a more significant impact than previously thought on NEDC-correlated values obtained under WLTP, which are calculated using co2mpas (the model developed to convert WLTP CO2 measurements to an NEDC equivalent).
This could result in significant financial penalties for automotive manufacturers in EU member states where CO2 drives taxes. The new figures indicate that the disparity between NEDC test data and NEDC correlated data under WLTP test cycle is higher than the 8g/km JATO monitored back in April 2018, and that the process of concluding the re-homologation of all vehicles could take longer than expected.
The industry is approaching a deadline in September when WLTP testing will apply to all new car production.
Due to increased test numbers, JATO has a larger and more robust sample of vehicles from which to calculate the volume-weighted impact on NEDC-correlated CO2 values under WLTP testing. Additionally, it is possible to calculate the impact on vehicle segments too.
The analysis of the volume weighted effect of re-homologation finds that a difference of 9.6g/km between the CO2 amount calculated under NEDC testing and WLTP tested (NEDC correlated) values. This is nearly 2g/km higher than the 8g/km previously seen in April 2018.
The majority of cars currently re-homologated are within the A and B segments, meaning this difference could increase even more when additional segments are included where weight is considered to be at +10.3 g/km.
This comes at a time when the carbon footprint of Europe is likely to further increase. First, there’s a significant shift away from diesel to gasoline vehicles across the EU member states, with registrations in H1 2018 showing gasoline vehicles increasing their market share by 7 percentage points to now account for 57% of the market.
Diesels have suffered a significant decline, with their share of market falling by 9 percentage points to 37%—the lowest for diesel vehicles this century. Finally, and perhaps more crucially, despite Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs) increasing registrations by 30% in volume year on year, that fuel type still only accounts for 6% of the market. Significant progress is still needed for AFVs to plug the gap left by the declining diesel market, if the trend towards gasoline vehicles continues.
Once WLTP testing is fully enforced and more vehicles are re-homologated, JATO predicts CO2 values to be even higher combining the fuel type shift mentioned above and the WLTP re-homologation effect.
The findings highlight to the industry that CO2 emissions are a key influencer of EU member state taxes and EU fleet penalties, so a combination of higher readings under the WLTP test criteria, and the shift towards petrol vehicles could have a significant impact on the industry.
Today 37% of vehicles registered in EU member states are subject to a CO2 purchase tax, while more than half of vehicles sold (52%) enforce a CO2 ownership tax—including sizable markets such as France, Germany and the UK.
With the disparity between CO2 levels recorded under NEDC test conditions and NEDC correlated values calculated following WLTP test conditions and correlated using Co2mpas, CO2 levels could be significantly higher than previously thought which could result in tax rates changing to accommodate the rising figures. More significantly, automotive manufacturers could face significant penalties, under the EU regulation that penalizes carmakers for every gram over the CO2 reduction target.