GlobalData: EVs will transform the automotive industry over the next 5 years; potentially 300M EVs by 2040; 15% of registrations by 2030
The electric vehicle is one of four themes, along with the connected car, autonomous driving technology and transport-as-a-service, that is disrupting the legacy automotive industry, according to GlobalData, a data and analytics company.
The company’s latest report—Electric vehicles - Thematic Research—projects that while there are currently 3 million electric vehicles globally, this could rise to 300 million by 2040.
Over the next five years, we expect stress, strain, margin evaporation, and shake out across much of the legacy automotive industry and its Tier-1 parts suppliers as a slow growth industry incurs the expense of conversion to electric vehicle and autonomous driving technology.—Cyrus Mewawalla, Head of Thematic Research at GlobalData
GlobalData predicts that the proportion of electric vehicles as new registrations will rise from barely 1% of global passenger vehicles in 2017 to more than 15% by 2030. However, large scale commercial production of electric vehicles by the big car makers is unlikely to take off until 2025.
Between now and then, most of the legacy auto industry is in for a period of rising capital expenditure, increased M&A activity, tougher regulations, shrinking margins and unprecedented technological disruption. Many car makers will not survive this turmoil, according to GlobalData.
We are at the very beginning of the cycle, but over the next decade the automotive value chain will be transformed by the electric vehicle theme.—Cyrus Mewawalla