A new report from the California Center for Jobs & The Economy indicates that cumulative plug-in vehicle (plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles) sales in California have reached 8.6% of the 2030 goal of 5 million units. Full battery-electric vehicle sales are at 4.4%.

Source: “State’s Progress on 5 Million Zero Emission Vehicles by 2030: Q2 2018 Results”

In Q2 2018, PEV sales were 35,466 vehicles, up from 22,427 from Q2 2017 and up by 8,255 from Q4 2017. Total market share for PEVs for the quarter was 6.9%, up from 4.3% year-on-year. Battery electric vehicles accounted for 19,358 vehicles, up from 11,828 year-on-year, with market share going from 2.3% in Q2 2017 to 3.7% in Q2 2018. Standard hybrid sales (HEVs except for plug-in hybrids) were 20,595, down from 24,321 year-on-year. Total market share was 4.0%, down from 4.7% year-on year, but the same as the first quarter of this year.

The report attributed PEV sales growth in Q2 to two main factors:

• Most PEV sales continue to come as consumers otherwise open to an alternative fuel vehicle shift to plug-ins rather than buying a standard hybrid.

• Tesla finally began significant shipments of Model 3 from prior orders. Tesla’s sales in California were up 9,815 from Q2 2017, of which 8,951 were Model 3 shipments for orders posted in the prior year. These sales may indicate that a break from the 9.1% long-term market share may finally be taking place, but more than one quarter of data and sales generated by current rather than prior-year consumer decisions will be needed to show a change in this trend. Counter to previous expectations that Model 3 would finally represent a break-through in BEV prices that would open up electric vehicles to a wider market, current deliveries are at a price point that keeps this model in the near luxury category, limiting its future ability to appeal to a wider segment of the market.

Accounting for normal fleet turnover rates and reductions from persons moving out of California, PEV sales would need to be 3.9 times higher to meet the 2030 goal, the report said. True ZEV sales would have to be 7.8 times higher.