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Navigant Research: global annual sales of electric drive medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, excluding China, will increase 17% through 2030

According to a new report from Navigant Research, global annual sales of electric drive medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (eMHDVs) will experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% through 2030. Excluding China, which has an aggressive program underway to electrify the largest bus market in the world, the CAGR is 17% worldwide.

Although the eMHDV market is gaining increased attention, the vehicles currently make up a small portion of global annual sales outside of China. The production of these vehicle technologies is driven by several factors, including fuel efficiency improvements, emissions reduction, energy costs, maintenance, and declining costs for alternative fuel and batteries.

—William Drier, research analyst at Navigant Research

While market interest remains strong, challenges do exist, particularly for the heavy-duty (HD) truck market. The requirement for large battery capacity and lack of available recharging infrastructure for HD trucks falls short of the requirements for long-haul trucking applications, which prevents the use of electric trucks outside of fixed regional routes. In a market in search for alternatives, liquid natural gas (LNG) is one of the most prominent of the alternative fuel options that is quickly gaining traction for HD trucks as OEMs try to meet higher carbon emissions standards.

The report, Market Data: Electric Trucks and Buses, analyzes the global market for electric drive trucks and buses, with a focus on four powertrains: hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell. The study provides an analysis of the market issues, including opportunities, implementation challenges, and prominent market factors, associated with eMHDVs. Global market forecasts for vehicle populations and sales, segmented by powertrain-fuel configuration, vehicle type, region, and scenario, extend through 2030.

The report also examines the major technologies surrounding the vehicle electrification landscape, including alternative fuels, as well as the key market participants.



China was excluded from this study because the local China growth rate for heavy duty electrified vehicles is 3X to 5X higher?

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