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Navigant forecasts 9% CAGR for global sales of electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicles from 2018 to 2030

Navigant Research forecasts in a new report that global sales of electric drive medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (eMHDVs) will increase at a 9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2018 to 2030.

However, if the forecasts exclude the results of China’s already aggressive push to electrify its bus market, which is the largest in the world, the growth rate is higher. Sales of eMHDVs in the rest of the world (excluding China) are expected to increase by nearly 17%.

There are challenges to the electrification of this market, particularly the heavy duty (HD) truck market. The current battery capacity for HD trucks falls short of the requirements for long-haul trucking applications, which prevents the use of electric trucks outside of fixed regional routes.

Liquid natural gas (LNG) is the only other alternative fuel option for HD trucks as OEMs try to meet higher carbon emissions standards, according to Navigant. Other technologies are poised to disrupt the eMHDV market by improving vehicle efficiency without changing the powertrain or fuel. Freight matching services could improve efficiency by reducing the occurrence of less than full loads. Incorporating platooning technologies could also increase a fleet’s fuel efficiency.



I continue to be amazed by the failure to consider anything like the Bladerunner dual-mode truck concept for these purposes.  Electrify the rails and the need for long-range batteries goes away.  It would have the further benefits of eliminating most need for guidance (so self-driving would be much easier) and separate heavy freight vehicles from passenger cars, increasing the safety of both.


Alternatively, could limited e-range trucks ride on electrified rail flat cars and do the first and last few miles on their on board batteries?

Another way would be to let the trailers (only) ride on flat e-rail cars and use the e-trackers to move the trailers the first and last few miles.

Both methods would free the highways for smaller vehicles, accelerate traffic and reduce accidents?

could limited e-range trucks ride on electrified rail flat cars and do the first and last few miles on their on board batteries?

Harvey, you numbskull... electrify the rail line, power the trucks from the overhead lines, eliminate the rail cars and the train required to pull them.  Let the trucks run unmanned on the rails to a parking yard where drivers pick them up and transfer them to their ultimate destinations.  The drivers can do several round-trips per shift, taking their EVs to the yard at the start and driving them home (fully charged) at the end.  That eliminates lots of motor fuel and air emissions for cheap.

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