Navigant forecasts 9% CAGR for global sales of electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicles from 2018 to 2030
However, if the forecasts exclude the results of China’s already aggressive push to electrify its bus market, which is the largest in the world, the growth rate is higher. Sales of eMHDVs in the rest of the world (excluding China) are expected to increase by nearly 17%.
There are challenges to the electrification of this market, particularly the heavy duty (HD) truck market. The current battery capacity for HD trucks falls short of the requirements for long-haul trucking applications, which prevents the use of electric trucks outside of fixed regional routes.
Liquid natural gas (LNG) is the only other alternative fuel option for HD trucks as OEMs try to meet higher carbon emissions standards, according to Navigant. Other technologies are poised to disrupt the eMHDV market by improving vehicle efficiency without changing the powertrain or fuel. Freight matching services could improve efficiency by reducing the occurrence of less than full loads. Incorporating platooning technologies could also increase a fleet’s fuel efficiency.