Navigant Research expects plug-in electric vehicle fleets to make up 12% of the global fleet vehicle population by 2030
23 January 2019
A new report from Navigant Research forecasts that while light-duty (LD) and medium- and heavy-duty (MHD) plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) fleets globally will make up less than 1% of the fleet vehicle market in 2018, that share will rise to 12% of the overall fleet vehicle population by 2030.
Fleet electrification is being driven by battery innovations, energy economics, and government regulation of transportation pollution. Cost reductions in batteries and other PEV technologies are reducing the purchase price of PEVs, while governments are incentivizing adoption with purchase incentives and emissions reduction goals.
“Fleet electrification has largely focused on the LDV segment to date. However, recent developments with electric MHDVs point toward encouraging signs of future growth in that segment. For example, the 2017 introduction of the Tesla Semi, BYD’s debut of its refuse truck in 2018, and the success of electric buses in China over the last 4 years all show momentum toward larger fleet electrification.
—Raquel Soat, research analyst with Navigant Research
According to the report, many fleets have made commitments to use electricity in all or part of their vehicles in the next decade, including large MHDV fleets such as DHL, UPS, FedEx, and several city bus fleets in China.
While the transportation industry is transforming its energy system, it is also being disrupted by innovations in automated vehicle systems and advances in battery energy density. Vehicle automation will likely encourage greater use of LDVs to augment alternative or public transportation modes and transform MHDV markets and uses.
One large south China city has already upgraded its 16300 city bus fleet to 100% electric units. Many others will do the same before 2025.
The rather low performance and current very high cost of batteries is slowing the switch to electrified units. Near future higher performance batteries at $100/kWh or below would be a game changer. BEVs should not cost more (and even less) than ICEVs equivalent.
The second essential for e-vehicles is low cost clean electricity. Interesting avenues are from Hydro, Wind and Solar. EVs with 100+ kWh battery packs could serve as hugh combined storage units to balance the grids, specially in areas where Wind and Solar are predominant. EV owners could contract to supply energy at a higher price during peak demand periods and recharge at night at a much lower price. Of course, the min/max and rate of charge/discharge would be limited to protect the EV batteries. EV owners would set the limits. The success of this energy exchange depends on the great number and size of batteries of future EVs.
Posted by: HarveyD | 23 January 2019 at 09:05 AM