In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts that annual volumes of highly automated vehicle (HAV) deployments will reach about 2.6 million in 2024, growing to 34 million in 2035.
Progress continues in the development and deployment of HAVs as leading companies in the sector, including Waymo and General Motors, prepare for the commercial launch of geo-fenced automated mobility services. Deployments are likely to be limited to select cities in the early 2020s before expanding more rapidly later in the decade.
As the companies developing this technology continue to grapple with the realities of reliable functionality in a broad range of real-world conditions, new questions continue to be raised about the robustness of the technology and the viability of different business models. However, HAVs offer the potential for significant societal benefits like improved safety, reduced congestion, greater adoption of electrification, and the ability to repurpose land currently set aside to park idle vehicles.—Sam Abuelsamid, senior research analyst with Navigant Research
According to the report, cities are actively investigating how to integrate automated vehicles into the mobility ecosystem to ensure equitable benefits and commercial viability for as many stakeholders as possible. Coordination will be needed to minimize downsides like increased empty vehicles miles traveled.
The report, Market Data: Automated Driving Vehicles, provides projections of the size of regional markets for consumer and commercial vehicles with highly automated driving capability. Global market sales and vehicle population projections for consumer vehicles under three different scenarios extend through 2035. The report also examines the breakdown by category for commercial vehicles with driving automation, separating medium- and heavy-duty trucks and medium- and heavy-duty buses.