Navigant Research: plug-in electric vehicles close to becoming leading alternative fuel platform, best positioned to lead future
From 2017 to 2018, PEV sales doubled in North America, and sales in Europe and China increased 39% and 77%, respectively, according to a new report from Navigant Research.
In 2019, multiple deployments of long-range battery EVs (BEVs) in crossover classes, as well as Tesla reaching full-scale production on the Model 3 and expanding its vehicle shipments to markets abroad, are setting the stage for continued market growth, Navigant says.
By 2030, annual PEV sales are estimated to be between 15% and 32% of the global light duty vehicle market, producing a global PEV population between 107 million and 190 million. This long-term growth is expected to be propelled by improving vehicle technology economics—a function of battery innovations, government transportation energy policies, oil price projections, and movements to price carbon.—Scott Shepard, senior research analyst with Navigant Research
Though PEV market growth has been considerable, challenges remain. These include vehicle availability, consumer awareness, charging infrastructure, and threats from competing alternative fuels or fuel efficiency solutions.
Navigant believes that these challenges and threats are eroding with the natural cycle of technological development and concerted efforts by stakeholders (governments, automakers, and energy providers) to move the market toward lower emissions transportation, specifically electrification.
Of the competing powertrain options, PEVs are close to becoming the leading conventional alternative and are best positioned to lead the future light duty vehicle market, Navigant concludes.