'In China, the country most aggressively pursuing the adoption of EVs and home to the world’s largest auto market, some of the industry’s biggest names believe pure battery electric cars will be as cheap as gasoline counterparts by 2025.

Those making that prediction include Ouyang Minggao, executive vice president of the EV100 forum, a think tank which is widely seen as the de facto voice of government policy.

“The turning point is coming. We believe that around 2025, the price of pure electric vehicles will achieve a big breakthrough,” he said in a speech in January.

Ouyang cited a reduction in battery costs to $100 per kilowatt hours from $150-$200 currently and a planned tightening of emissions rules in China which will make gasoline vehicles there more expensive.

But others in the EV industry are less optimistic.

“Chinese policymakers think EVs will become more like conventional gasoline cars as early as 2025. But that’s naive and all automaker engineers would agree with me,” said a veteran EV engineer at Honda Motor Co.

“Sure, there’s an EV boom but hybrids and plug-in hybrids will be needed as bridging technologies,” he said.

The engineer was one of five interviewed by Reuters for this article who believe it will take a decade before battery EVs achieve cost and performance parity with gasoline cars. Most were not authorised to speak to media and declined to identified when describing the shortcomings of EV technology.'

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' the engineers who spoke with Reuters caution that even if battery unit costs are brought down to $100/kWh, this would not necessarily translate into a steep decline in vehicle costs.

That’s because the investment to improve battery quality needs to be factored in, while the cars also need sophisticated battery management systems to prevent overheating and overcharging - adding thousands of dollars to their cost.
Toyota Motor Corp, which does not have a pure EV on the market currently, says it is concerned about battery durability. Battery capacity can drop by half over 5-10 years - the reason for low EV resale values, said Shigeki Terashi, executive vice president in charge of Toyota’s EV strategy.

“Falling EV battery capacity is not a major issue in China now because sales there have only recently begun, but in time this problem will likely become more evident,” he told Reuters in a interview.'

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'Bereisa thinks battery costs could achieve parity with gasoline cars by the late 2020s but his verdict on fast fuelling parity is “maybe never”.

“It’s physics,” he said, adding that to charge an EV with the same amount of energy in the same amount of time as a gasoline car, you’d need a charger powerful “enough to run a small city”.'

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-shanghai-electric-insight/the-uphill-road-battery-limitations-to-test-chinas-electric-vehicle-ambitions-idUKKCN1RS06T

VW ID3 (neo) with a range of 330km (WLTP) will cost 24000 €. That's the same as a gas Golf with 150 ps. The version with 550km range will be over 200 ps and have a price of ca. 30 000€, a little less than the Basis version of the Tesla 3.
So Chinese are wrong, it will not be in 2025 but in 2020!!!
https://de.motor1.com/news/297990/vw-id-alias-neo-daten/

Higher performance, lower cost , ultra quick charge, longer lasting batteries may be what Toyota has been waiting to mass produce affordable EVs.

However, that may not happen much before 2025 unless Chinese manufacturers beat the world market to it? They could produce both the lighter vehicles and batteries required.