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IHS Markit: sales of automotive ECUs to hit $211B in 2030, 5% CAGR

Electronic control units (ECUs) are playing an increasingly critical role in the automotive industry, driving the development of safer, smarter, cleaner and better-connected cars. As a result, IHS Markit expects global automotive ECU revenue to soar to $211 billion in 2030, rising at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% from $122 billion in 2018. This robust expansion follows a strong year in 2018, when revenue rose 6.9% from $114 billion in 2017.

Ecu

ECUs are essential for managing automotive subsystems including the engine, power-steering and transmission.

As vehicles have added more features—like infotainment, telematics and advanced driver-assist systems (ADAS)—the number of ECUs in each vehicle has increased. A single modern luxury vehicle now can integrate as many as 150 ECUs.

—James Priyatham, research analyst, automotive electronics and semiconductors at IHS Markit

The rise in ECU usage reflects the broader trend of increasing amounts of electronics in each new vehicle. The average value of in-vehicle electronics is projected to increase to $1,832 in 2030, up from $1,296 in 2018, according to IHS Markit forecasts.

The biggest contributors to the rising electronic content of cars during the coming years are ADAS, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs).

Collectively, HEV and BEV ECUs accounted for just 3% of the total automotive electronics market in 2018, but are expected to rise to 15% in 2030. ADAS will grow to account for 29% of car electronics revenue in 2030, up from 17% in 2018.

While the proliferation of ECUs is enabling many new features in cars, the sheer multiplicity of devices is creating new challenges. In particular, the management of all the ECUs has become a complex task. To address this issue, carmakers are seeking to reduce the number of ECUs in each vehicle by consolidating capabilities into fewer devices.

New electronic architectures are emerging to help manage cost, power consumption and weight. One emerging architecture is the cockpit domain controller (CDC).

With a CDC architecture, ECUs require less functionality, with many of their capabilities centralized on the domain controller. As a result, some ECUs are becoming ‘dumb,’ meaning they lack features like a system-on-chip or memory.

—Brian Rhodes, connected car research lead at IHS Markit

The consolidation will cause global automotive infotainment electronics revenue to flatten out, according to IHS Markit forecasts. This is expected to occur as some infotainment-oriented ECUs are replaced partially or completely by a CDC.

Big suppliers dominate the ECU business. Major automotive suppliers Continental and Bosch dwarf the competition in the global ECU market. The two companies together accounted for 28% of the total ECU market in 2018.

Despite attempts to consolidate, ECU usage is set to continue to expand in the coming years as the growing feature-set of cars outstrips efforts to reduce ECU usage, IHS Markit says.

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