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Navigant expects global share of electric buses to grow to nearly 33% by 2030

Navigant Research forecasts that e-buses will make up nearly one-third of all buses on the road worldwide by 2030. The global medium- and heavy-duty bus market has been dominated by internal combustion engine vehicles. However, Navigant says, the adoption of electric buses (e-buses) will continue to rise as battery prices decline and a greater importance is placed on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants.

Fleets can take advantage of increasing government support to help surmount the high upfront costs associated with e-buses. Transit, coach, shuttle, and school fleets can use e-buses to achieve their emissions and air quality targets, while improving their bottom line. These market conditions can enable e-buses to lead the way on the electrification of other commercial vehicle segments.

—William Drier, research analyst with Navigant Research

Globally, China will continue to be the leading market segment for overall e-bus sales; Navigant expects the country to maintain the vast majority of the market share with 74% by 2030. According to Navigant’s new report, North America and Europe will jointly make up nearly 14% of all e-bus sales by then.

The report, Electric Buses analyzes the global bus market across electric powertrains (plug-in hybrids and battery electric), as well as vehicle weight (medium-duty and heavy-duty), vehicle type (transit, coach, school, and shuttle), and region.

The study provides an analysis of the market issues, including opportunities, implementation challenges, and prominent market factors associated with e-buses. Global market forecasts for vehicle populations and sales are broken out by segment and region and extend through 2030.

The report also examines the key technologies surrounding charging infrastructure, competitive alternative fuels, as well as key market participants.



China's current lead will probably grow much faster than Navigant expects. At the current rate, China may reach something close to 90% e-buses by or before 2030.

Of course, USA, Canada and EU will be very far behind with few units in operation.

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