The business jet industry is expected to see strong growth in the short to medium term, supported by several new airplane models coming to the market, according to Honeywell’s 28th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook. The Global Business Aviation Outlook forecasts up to 7,600 new business jet deliveries worth $248 billion from 2020 to 2029, down 1 to 2 percentage points from the 2018 10-year forecast.
Key findings in the 2019 Honeywell global outlook include:
Operators plan to make new jet purchases equivalent to about 17% of their fleets over the next five years as replacements or additions to their current fleet, a decrease of 3 percentage points compared with 2018 survey results.
Of the total purchase plans for new business jets over the next 5 years, 35% are expected to occur in the first two years of the survey, with 57% of purchase plans realized by year three. This is 5 percentage points higher than last year’s survey.
Operators continue to focus on larger-cabin aircraft classes, from large cabin through ultralong-range aircraft, which are expected to account for more than 71% of all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years.
The longer-range forecast through 2029 projects a 2% to 3% average annual growth rate in line with expected worldwide economic growth and supported by the current and expected introduction of new models throughout the forecast period.
Purchase plans for used jets are significantly higher in this year’s survey. Operators worldwide indicated that 32% of their fleet is expected to be replaced or expanded by used jets over the next five years, up 8 percentage points compared with survey results from 2018.
The main factors that influence purchasing decisions are aircraft performance, followed by brand experience, cabin and range. Survey participants also cited direct operating costs and customer support experience as elements that will influence their decision on which aircraft to buy.
Operators in Asia Pacific report new jet acquisition plans for 15% of their fleet over the next five years. Based on the expressed level of purchase plans, Asia Pacific would represent a 10% share of global new jet demand over the next five years.
About 40% of respondents in Asia Pacific plan to schedule their new purchases within the first two years of the five-year horizon, the highest proportion of all the regions.
Honeywell’s forecast methodology is based on multiple sources, including, but not limited to, macroeconomic analyses, original equipment manufacturers’ production and development plans shared with the company, and expert deliberations from aerospace industry leaders. Honeywell also utilizes information gathered from interviews conducted during the forecasting cycle with over 1,500 nonfractional business jet operators worldwide. The survey sample is representative of the entire industry in terms of geography, operation and fleet composition.