In a new report, “Electric Vans 2020-2030”, UK-based IDTechEx forecasts that global production of electric LCVs will exceed 2.4 million units annually by 2030. The report provides a detailed ten-year outlook for the uptake of electric light commercial vehicles across key regions (China, Europe, North America and the rest of the world) outlining, eLCV production, penetration, market revenue and battery requirements.

European Light Commercial Vehicle Sales 2018. Source: IDTechEx Electric Vans 2020-2030, ACEA

IDTechEx says that the light commercial vehicle market is uniquely positioned to rapidly transition to electric vehicles. LCV operators primarily base their purchase decisions on total cost of ownership calculations, and while the upfront cost of electric LCVs is currently greater than for a equivalent diesel model, the significant operational cost saving from using electricity as a fuel, in replacement of diesel, is increasingly being shown to offset the initial price difference.

Over the next decade, as battery pack prices decrease, electric drivetrain efficiencies improve and significant economy of scale savings are realized on the cost of electric components and vehicle manufacturing, it will become a competitive advantage for companies to operate electric vans as they will offer the lowest cost solution.

Forecast eLCV share of total global LCV market revenue. Source: IDTechEx Electric Vans 2020-2030

The addition of road charges for diesel vehicles in low emission zones within urban centers will swing the TCO balance heavily in favor of electric LCVs, IDTechEx says.

IDTechEx believes the next few years will see companies conducting large scale pilot projects to establish that eLCVs meet their operational range, load capacity, payload and reliability requirements. Once demonstrable evidence is there that eLCVs can meet the operational requirements without increased cost, then the widespread replacement of ageing diesel LCVs with eLCV will begin in earnest.