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JATO Dynamics: in decline of Euro new car market, electrified vehicles increase share to almost 13%

The decline of the European new car market has continued throughout February. According to JATO Dynamics data, 1,063,264 units were registered last month, compared to 1,143,852 in February 2019. This equates to a decline of 7.0%, as last month saw the lowest number of registrations since 2015, when only 955,113 units were registered.

This aligns to the negative results seen in January when volume fell by 7.6%. Thus, the first two months of this year, have already seen a cumulative fall in registrations of 7.3% to 2,194,706 units.

The situation is rapidly deteriorating in Europe due to complex regulation, lack of available homologated cars, and increasing pressure on the economy. All of these factors are having a detrimental impact on consumer confidence.

—Felipe Munoz, global analyst at JATO Dynamics

This is also pre-COVID-19. As of 29 February, JATO data has shown that the impact of COVID-19 had yet to hit the European automotive market.

Against this negative backdrop, electrified vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs and BEVs) were once again the outlier in the industry. Their registrations jumped from 75,400 units in February 2019 to 135,500 units last month. The increase of more than 80% came at the expense of diesel and gasoline cars which saw significantly fewer registrations.

Chart 3

February 2020 registrations of HEVs were up 46% to 59,000; PHEVs were up 153% to 28,700; and BEVs were up 92% to 38,700 units year-on-year.

So far this year, electrified vehicles have been the only lifeline for manufacturers operating in Europe. This is good news, as the industry’s electrification plans have finally seen a positive response from consumers.

—Felipe Munoz

The volume of electrified vehicles more than doubled in Germany and France—their biggest markets. In terms of market share, electrified vehicles represented 75% of all passenger cars registrations in Norway; 33% in Sweden; 31% in Finland; 22% in Netherlands; and 17% in Hungary. France leads among the big 5 markets, with an EV penetration of 14%, against 13% in the UK, 11% in Germany, 10% in Spain, and 8.6% in Italy.

As EVs have increasingly become a viable alternative to gasoline and diesel cars, SUVs are now struggling in the competitive environment. Registrations for SUVs fell by 1.7% to 415,300 units, taking the year-to-date total to 865,500 units, down by 1.4% from last year. The fall in registrations was due to the compact SUVs, declining by 3.7% in contrast to the strong growth experienced by large SUVs, who saw an increase of 17%. Although there was a decrease in SUV registrations their market share did in fact increase due to the overall downturn of the market.

Perhaps surprisingly, midsize cars posted the highest growth among all segments, thanks to the BMW 3-Series, boosted by the new generation, and the Volkswagen Passat. Their combined registrations made up 31% of the whole midsize segment volume.

Unlike last year, the positive results for midsize cars were not thanks to the Tesla Model 3, the volume of which fell by 6%. Last year, the sedans or saloons were the second most preferred body type among consumers of passenger cars. Their global sales totaled 18.85 million units, equating to one in four of the units sold for passenger cars. However, their volume fell by 6.8%.

Vans also saw an increased in registrations, coming very close to beating the market share of MPVs, who experienced a decrease of 27%.


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