Adamas Intelligence forecasts global demand for NdFeB magnets to increase at CAGR of 8.6% through 2035; shortages of alloys, powders, REE expected
In its new Rare Earth Magnet Market Outlook to 2035 report, Adamas Intelligence forecasts that global demand for NdFeB magnets will increase at a CAGR of 8.6%, bolstered by double-digit growth from electric vehicle and wind power sectors. This will translate to comparable demand growth for the rare earths elements (i.e., neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium) these magnets contain.
Following a pandemic-induced lull in 2020, Adamas Intelligence data indicates that global consumption of NdFeB magnets jumped 18.1% in 2021 on the materialization of some latent demand from the year prior coupled with a surge in electric vehicle sales of all types.
Adamas forecasts that global production of neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium will collectively increase at a slower CAGR of just 5.4% through 2035 as the supply side of the market increasingly struggles to keep up with rapidly growing demand.
Other findings form the report include:
With total magnet rare earth oxide demand forecasted to increase at a CAGR of 8.3% and prices projected to increase at CAGRs of 3.2% to 3.7% over the same period, Adamas Intelligence forecasts that the value of global magnet rare earth oxide consumption will triple by 2035, from US $15.1 billion this year to US $46.2 billion by 2035.
Constrained by an expected under-supply of neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium oxide from 2022 onward, Adamas Intelligence forecasts that global shortages of NdFeB alloys and powders will amount to 66,000 tonnes annually by 2030 and 206,000 tonnes annually by 2035—nearly one-third of the total market.
Constrained by a lack of new primary and secondary supply sources coming to market from 2022 onward, coupled with the inability of existing producers to increase output steadily at the rate of demand growth, Adamas forecasts that global shortages of neodymium, praseodymium and didymium oxide (or oxide equivalents) will collectively rise to 21,000 tonnes annually by 2030 and 68,000 tonnes by 2035—an amount roughly equal to China’s total production last year.