by Michael Sivak, Sivak Applied Research

This brief post examines the current differences between the prices of gasoline in blue and red states, and the possible influence of these differences on the upcoming elections. Blue states were defined as those states where, in 2020, Joe Biden won all or a majority of electoral votes (26 states); red states are those where Biden won no or a minority of electoral votes (25 states). The average prices of regular gasoline on October 24, 2022 came from AAA.

The average of state averages in blue states was $3.99 per gallon, while in red states it was $3.62. There were only 2 blue states in which the average price was below $3.50 (CT and GA), compared with 13 red states (AL, AR, FL, KY, KS, LA, MO, MS, OK, NC, SC, TN, and TX).

Conversely, there was only 1 red state in which the average price was above $4.40 (AK), compared with 5 blue states (CA, HI, NV, OR, and WA). (In an earlier post, I compared the prices as of mid-July.)

The price of gasoline is of obvious concern to drivers, and thus of voters. The elevated price since this spring has likely contributed to a general shift toward voting for Republicans throughout the country. Furthermore, this shift is most noticeable in blue states, because in some of these states the shift might result in more Republican victories than was expected earlier in the year.

Michael Sivak is the managing director of Sivak Applied Research and the former director of Sustainable Worldwide Transportation at the University of Michigan.